Will Rogers

The set-up: Boston is 10-1 and Sacaramento is 4-7. Boston got it's road trip started off with a 105-100 win in Golden State, but with a game tomorrow night against the re-surgent Suns, followed by heavyweights LA Clippers and to finish their trip at Denver, I think Boston finally gets caught "looking ahead" in this classic "trap" game. Also note that Boston could rest players in anticipation of the upcoming grueling schedule.

The pick: The Kings on the other hand will be laying everything on the line here. Sacramento has won five of its last seven and it enters off a tough 99-97 loss on the road to the Lakers. Note as well that Boston is only 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Sacramento is interestingly 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine in this series in front of the home town crowd. Look for the home side to throw everything it has into this game, but make sure to grab as many points as you can as well.

10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Sacramento Kings.

The set-up: The Bears are 4-5 and the Rams are 5-4. Each has struggled mightily this year, but both have an opportunity to get things heading in the other direction with a victory here today. It's an important game for both struggling teams and I envision this one being a wide open "shootout," rather than a low-scoring "chess match." LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 17-12 loss to the Steelers last week, while the Bears snapped a four-game slide with a 20-13 victory over the Lions. While both those games were low-scoring and while each has struggled to put points on the board, I think the stage is now set for Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky and Rams' pivot Jared Goff, to shine. 

The pick: Chicago is getting a balance on offense now with its run game, as David Montgomery has 235 yards and three TD's over his past three weeks. Trubisky himself will benefit here from a Rams' defense which is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The Bears are even worse against the pass though, allowing 253 yards per game through the air. Neither team is going to win this game on the ground. As stated off the top, I think the stage is now set for these two QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Bears/Rams OVER.

The set-up: Last year the Eagles needed to run the table near the end of the season to even make the playoffs and after a terrible start this season, that's the case again in 2019/20. The Pats though come in off their bye week and ready to take out their frurstrations after falling 37-20 to the Ravens two weeks ago. The Eagles though continue to defy the odds and they enter playing their best ball of the season after two straight victories. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: But note that the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four after their bye-week as well, while Philly has seen the total soar over in three of four as an underdog already this year. When taking into account the situational and trend based factors listed above, I'm expecting this one to fly over the number soon, rather than later.

8* play on the Pats/Eagles OVER.

The set-up: The 49ers beat the Cards 28-25 back on November 1st, and then lost 27-24 to the Seahawks last weekend. San Francisco's perfect season is now firmly in the rear view mirror and clearly teams are finding ways to score on it. Arizona comes in off a 30-27 setback and Tampa Bay and while its playoff hopes are slim, clearly the team isn't throwing in the towel on the season. 

The pick: Note as well that the Cards have lost three games by six or fewer points and in their season opener against Detroit they tied. If a few plays went the other way, Arizona could have many more wins under its belt right now. Note as well that San Fran is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records, while the Cards are 5-1 ATS their last six on the road. I think the outright win is possible as well here. That said, in what I expect to be another highly competitive affair, let's grab the points.

8* play on the Cardinals.

The set-up: Two of the best teams in the AFC collide in this one and while each possesses a unique and explosive signal caller under center, I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Baltimore has a string of tough games upcoming and I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. The Texans come in out of their bye, but clearly the game plan will be to try and keep the ball out of Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson's hands as much as possible. Overall Houston allows just 21 PPG. 

The pick: The Ravens' defense is also underrated, conceding only 21 PPG themselves. Houston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 15 after a win by 21 points or more, while Baltimore has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven off a win vs. a division rival. Expect these two hungry sides to battle to lower-scoring under once it's all said and done.

8* play on the UNDER Texans/Ravens.

The set-up: The Broncos beat the Browns at home and then had their bye-week off to prepare for this one. Broncos' QB Brandon Allen has a golden opportunity for the rest of the season to try and get his own personal stock to rise and with nothing to lose here, I think the visitors "open up the playbook" this afternoon. 

The pick: The Vikes are known for their hard-nosed defense, but it's been the offense which is mainly responsible for Minnesota's surge over the last few weeks. Cousins most recently went for 220 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Cowboys. I think Denver pushes the pace and I expect the Vikes' progression to continue here as well. This number is just a tad low.

8* play on Broncos/Vikes OVER.

The set-up: The Colts are ripe for the picking here in my opinion after their loss to Miami last week. Indy hopes to have QB Jacoby Brissett under center, but I think the uncertainty surrounding this is definitely not doing the home side any favors today. The Jags on the other hand finally welcome back Nick Foles under center and I think the Super Bowl MVP is going to be the difference here. Also note that the Jags are fresh off their bye week. From a situational stand point, there's no question this one sets up great for the outright upset. 

The pick: Additionally note that Jacksonville is already 3-1 ATS on the road this season and 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a favorite, while Indy is just 3-3 ATS at home and only 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after playing a game at home. The outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points.

8* play on the Jags.

The set-up: Atlanta inexplicably beat the Saints 26-9 last week. QB Matt Ryan is suiting up today for the Falcons and I don't think that's going to do the offense any favors. Both teams will be fighting for a victory here, but what was most impressive last week for ATL was clearly its defensive play. 

The pick: The Panthers appeared to have gotten things figured out with rookie QB Kyle Allen, but the team has come back down to Earth of late, winning one of their last three and getting outscored 95-59 in the process. Carolina has to double down on the defensive side of the ball today and the unit does catch a break facing the Falcons "on again, off again" offense. Note that ATL has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in seven of its last tne vs. teams with losing records. This number is a tad high.

8* play on the Falcons/Panthers under.

The set-up: New Orleans is 7-2, but it comes in off a terrible 26-9 loss at home to The Falcons. Tampa Bay is only 3-6 and it broke a four-game slide with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals last time out. Yes the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL this year, but they catch Drew Brees clearly still working through some issues. I have every confidence that Brees will eventually return to his normal dominating self, but I believe he will in fact struggle again here today. Note that Tampa has the BEST rushing defense, which turns the Saints into an incredibly one-dimensional team. 

The pick: The Saints are also better against the run than pass, but after last week's poor effort, New Orleans also catches a break here facing Jameis Winston, who enters with a poor 17:14 TD:INT. Note that the Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last seven as a road favorite, while TB has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect these two struggling teams to continue to struggle with consistency and play the under.

10* play on the Saints/Bucs UNDER.