Stephen Nover

The Padres battered the Braves for nine runs on Friday. I don't see San Diego doing nearly that kind of damage against Atlanta today. The Padres are well below average offensively and facing emerging star Sean Newcomb.  Newcomb is coming off a rare poor start this past Sunday against the Dodgers. Prior to that Newcomb had a 1.96 ERA in 11 starts holding foes to a .195 batting average.  Jordan Lyles was once a highly touted pitcher. He's finally showing signs of emerging moving from reliever to starter. He's made seven starts this season holding three opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He's backed by an underrated bullpen.  If you discount an eight-run game against the Mets, the Braves are averaging 2.8 runs in their last seven games.  Both starting pitchers should get a huge boost with Doug Eddings slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 76 percent of the past 26 games Eddings has been behind the plate. Eddings has the highest percentage of strikes called during the last five years than any other umpire. There isn't much wind, but the wind there is will be blowing in.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover won his Game of the Week by four runs with the Rockies on Friday and has found his Total of the Week on today's card in addition to this free selection. Don't miss any of Stephen's big winners!) 

The oddsmaker has shaded the Under in this matchup, which makes sense given a pitching matchup of Fernando Romero and Carlos Carrasco. Romero has held three of his last four opponents to two earned runs. He is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in day games this season. The Indians have scored four or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games. Carrasco has been dominant in his last two starts giving up one run in 14 innings with a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Indians are heavy home favorites so they are unlikely to bat in the ninth inning making this an 8 1/2-inning game. 

BC went 7-11 last season. The Lions look improved entering this season having upgraded in the trenches. New quarterback coach Jarious Jackson appears to be a good fit for Jonathon Jennings. 

 Montreal was the worst team in the CFL last year. The Alouettes not only went 3-15, but failed to win or cover any of their last 11 agmes. They remain the worst team in the CFL and I don't see them cutting the gap enough to cover this spread.  I'm not a fan of Montreal's new coach, Mike Sherman. The Alouettes looked just as bad in training camp and in their two preseason games as they did last season. Their putrid offense managed just one touchdown and three field goals in exhibition play. They don't have the playmakers and skill position depth to put up enough points to hang around.  So look for the Lions to win and cover for the sixth straight time in this series.