Stephen Nover

I'm far from convinced new Phillies manager Gabe Kapler knows what he's doing. Some of his moves have resembed Gabe Kaplan more than Connie Mack.  Still, the Phillies have been riding some surprising early season solid pitching to win nine of their last 11 games on their way to 14-7 record.  However, the Phillies are trumped by the Diamondbacks, who have the second-best record in baseball at 15-6.  The Diamondbacks are better than the Phillies, losers of 96 games last year, and have the superior starter in a pitching matchup of Robbie Ray versus Vince Velasquez.  Ray is on the cusp of being an elite pitcher. He's been at his best, too, pitching on the road. Arizona is 14-3 during his past 17 away starts. Ray is 9-1 in those starts with a 2.03 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 97 2/3 innings. His 13.3 K/9 rate this season was tied for the best mark in baseball entering this week. Arizona is 19-7 in Ray's last 26 overall starts. Velasquez has a 2.41 ERA during his last three starts. That's a rare consistent stretch for Velasquez, who has a high ceiling but rarely has shown any sustained progress. His ERA during his two years with the Phillies are 5.12 and 4.12. It's 3.80 so far this season. Philadelphia has lost in 20 of Velasquez's last 28 starts.  Despite their excellent early season records, neither the Diamondbacks nor Phillies have high batting averages, or a lot of home runs. The difference is the Diamondbacks have reliable veteran stars such as Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock while the Phillies have unproven young talent.  Ray has held batters to a .118 batting average with runners in scoring position. Opponents are batting .292 versus Velasquez with runners in scoring position.  The Diamondbacks have dominated the Phillies in Philadelphia, too. They've won the past seven times at Citizens Bank Park with the average victory margin during this span being by 3.2 runs. 
 (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is on a 69 percent winning tear on his last 13 premium baseball plays and has won his last four NBA plays. Stephen has two NBA plays going today, including his Game of the Week, plus a Top Ticket MLB play in addition to this free selection.) 

Quietly Oakland has gone above .500 on the season. The A's have won seven of their last eight games. Their underrated offense ranks in the top-six in runs, homers and batting average. They also have some underrated pitchers such as Andrew Triggs, who is slated to pitch today. Texas is going to be very bad again this season. The Rangers are 3-11 at home, have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and are down their two starting middle infielders, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor.  Triggs has pitched well in three of his four starts this season. He's facing Cole Hamels, who carries a big reputation but really isn't that good anymore. Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season. It's 4.76 this year.  Triggs has a 1.02 lifetime ERA versus the Rangers in four appearances, including three starts. The A's beat the Rangers, 3-1, at home behind Triggs three weeks ago. 

Down 3-0 in the series, San Antonio saved faced with a 103-90 home win against Golden State this past Sunday.  Now the Warriors return home knowing they need to end this series now with the Pelicans already waiting in the wings having swept the Trail Blazers in their first-round playoff series.  The Spurs don't have it this year. Kawhi Leonard was a no-show. There's too much age and the great Gregg Popovich is in mourning following the death of his wife last week. Assistant Ettore Messina will coach the Spurs in this game with Popovich away.  A combination of the Spurs being exceedingly hot from long range - 15 of 28 3-pointers - and the Warriors playing flat resulted in the Spurs' first win of the series. It's going to be their only win, too, as I see the Warriors definitely closing out things here. The major question, of course, is will they win by enough points to cover this double-digit spread? Steve Kerr and the Warriors have too much respect for the Spurs. They won't fool around. They certainly have the talent to bury the Spurs. They had leads of 19 or more points during the first three games of this series in winning by 21, 15 and 13 points, respectively.  San Antonio has failed to cover in its last nine away games. 

Having home-court and a monster coaching edge trump Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those are two reasons why I like Boston here. But they are not the only reasons. I don't trust the Bucks' bench, nor do I believe the Bucks can keep up their hot shooting especially from 3-point range.  The Celtics finished the regular season giving up the third-fewest points per game. They ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense holding foes to 33.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Bucks, though, are hitting 43.6 percent of their 3-point shots, which is the best of any team in the playoffs. The Bucks ranked 22nd in the league in 3-point shooting during the regular season at 35.5 percent.  Boston's defense could get an added boost if Marcus Smart is able to play. He's been out with a thumb injury.  The Celtics have won 29 of 43 games at home this season. The Bucks are five games under .500 on the road. The Bucks nearly choked away a 20-point lead at home this past Sunday before winning by two. Milwaukee is 5-11 ATS following a victory.