Kyle Hunter

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers start Brett Hundley here as Aaron Rodgers is out indefinitely with an injury. That's obviously a massive loss, and I expect the Packers to have a much more conservative game plan ready for this one. 

New Orleans had an extremely high scoring game filled with defensive and special teams touchdowns last week. That has inflated this total a bit.

The weather here should be a factor. The forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain during the game. Wind combined with rain is definitely a plus for the under. 

The New Orleans passing game isn't likely to be quite as effective in those conditions. 

Green Bay is better defensively at home, and the Saints aren't as good offensively on the road. The weather combines with a new QB for the Packers to create value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a team I want to lay points with very often, but I do think this is a good matchup for them.

Indianapolis played Monday night, so Jacksonville has had more time to get ready for this game. The Colts run defense ranks 18th in the NFL at this point, but if you factor in who they have played thus far I think the run defense for Indianapolis is even worse than that.

The Jaguars are going to run the football here. They have been doing it well in recent contests, and I think they'll have success again here.  Jacksonville is second in the NFL at 5.0 yards per carry on the season.

The Jaguars defense is the biggest reason I like this play. They are elite at pass rushing and defending the pass. The Colts offensive line has struggled with injuries, and they are no match for the Jacksonville defensive front. 

I'll lay the field goal with the better defense and the much better run game, especially with them having a preparation advantage.

Take Jacksonville. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Denver Broncos are coming off a really bad performance against the New York Giants this past Sunday night. Denver was a massive favorite and no one gave the Giants a chance. The Giants go in and win easily, and now this line has moved from the look ahead line significantly. Denver was slated to be a -2.5 or -3 favorite and now some books are showing Denver +1.

It's important to remember that the Chargers have no home field advantage. It won't be a surprise if there are more Broncos fans than Chargers fans in the stands for this one. 

Phillip Rivers is an ugly 3-16 ATS in his last 19 home games against divisional foes. The Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road divisional games.

Denver has the much better defense, and I think the Broncos bounce back here against a Chargers team that often finds ways to lose close games.

Take Denver.