Kyle Hunter

*4 Star Play on San Francisco* The Kansas City Chiefs would have been favored by no more than 3 points in this game just two weeks ago. To see a move of this magnitude in two weeks time in the NFL is fairly rare. It is extremely rare when the opposing team has actually played pretty well so far this year.

San Francisco is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.3 on defense. They played a tight game against the Vikings who are an excellent team, and that was a road contest. They then built a big lead before holding on to a win at home against the Lions. They were sloppy late and many of the players have said that is a point of emphasis this week to to be sharp for the whole contest and not have lapses. 

Patrick Mahomes has been amazing in his first two games in the NFL. There's nothing negative I can say about Mahomes here. The Kansas City offense is tremendous, and they should score quite a few points here.

San Francisco should score quite a few too though. The Chiefs are second to last in yards per play allowed so far this year at 6.9. This Chiefs defense just isn't any good. 

It's tough to lay a lot of points with a bad defense, especially with Andy Reid as your head coach. Reid is known for being conservative when in the lead. 

Interesting trend- teams who played their first two games on the road and come back home for their home opener in week 3 are 9-26-2 ATS since 2003. The Chiefs are in that spot here.

Too much line value here to pass up.

Take San Francisco.

*4 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens were down 21-0 in no time last Thursday against the Bengals. I consider John Harbaugh one of the better coaches in the NFL. Harbaugh has extra time to get his team ready for this one, and I'll be surprised if they don't play much better here.

In the NFL, teams who have had more than 8 days off are hitting at 55.3% ATS since 2003. The extra rest clearly makes a difference.

The Broncos are very fortunate to be 2-0 on the season, and that has them overvalued coming into this game. Denver won on a late comeback against a poor Seattle team at home. They were then badly outplayed at home for the majority of the game against the Raiders.

Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. Vance Joseph hasn't impressed me as a head coach thus far, and he has only covered 4 games as a head coach. 

The Broncos are traveling east to play an early game against a pumped up Baltimore team with something to prove. The Ravens have a big coaching edge and the extra rest.

Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring on this Detroit Lions defense. The Lions defense isn't good to start with, and the guess from most is that Darius Slay, their top corner, is unlikely to play this Sunday night. He suffered a head injury last weekend, and most players with similar injuries have missed at least one game. The Lions don't have any depth in the secondary, and the Patriots can take advantage.

On the other side, Blake Bortles just carved up this Patriots secondary. Matt Stafford has been good on the turf, and I think he'll find a lot of open receivers in this one. New England has shown defensive weakness in the past year, and a team like Detroit that airs it out often should be able to move the ball on this unit.

The over is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 home games. The over is 5-1 in the Lions last 6 after a loss.

Look for a lot of big plays and a high scoring contest.

Take the over.