John Ryan

Sacramento Kings over the Boston Celtics
3:30 PM EST, November 17, 2019
7-Star on the Kings

 These reports are shorter than normal only due to the amount time necessary to do the research behind these plays.

This situational betting system has earned a solid 30-7 ATS record good for 81% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG and after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.

 Kings are 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

This situational query has earned an outstanding 24-4 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. The requirements are bet Home favorites (LA RAMS) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45 and 55% in the second half of the season.

The NFL odds on this game is providing some solid insight from the betting flows data. The line opened with the Rams as a 7-point home favorite and now has moved to 6.5-points at many of the sportsbooks. I expect this line to move to 6-points over the next 48 hours given the higher than usual betting activity on the underdog Bears by the public bettors.

Currently, 63% of the number of betting tickets placed and 63% of the total money taken are on the Bills. The total money bet on the game is broken down to $203,740 on the Bears and $120,900 is on the Rams, which translates to average bet size of $61.00 on the Bears and $62.00 on the Rams. So, ther betting activity is twice as many tickets being bet on the Bears than the Rams and with each bet size being equal for interest on either team.

So, the betting consensus on the game is nearing the ‘red Alert’ level of 70% for bets on the Bears. I do expect the 70% level to be eclipsed and when it does it is a signal to bet on the Rams. Betting against the public consensus when it reaches an irrational exuberance stage and betting with the Book side is never a poor decision.

There are many reasons that the Rams are getting discounted in the market. The last time Rans played the Bears, it was at Soldier Field, and the result was one of the worst games of Goff’s young career. Many observers point to this game as the one where the defensive coordinators had caught up to the offensive genius of Sean McVay. I like to think of it has a pullback of an outstanding stock that had been in a bull trend for a prolonged period. Call it profit taking on the Rams, but now is the time to be a buyer of the Rams.

Rams wide receiver Brandon Cooks remains sidelined as well and with him out of this game allows the Bears defense to double team Cooper Kupp.

In the last meeting between the teams, the Bears used a six-man defensive front with a single rover linebacker that mirrored Rams running back Todd Gurley. This defensive scheme plugged the gaps that the Rams offense would look to open on running plays that created canyons for Gurley to run through.

The Rams will use quick short passes to the slot, which will be open field in the 6-1 defensive scheme. They will also use far more 5-wide receiver sets that will have Robert Woods in man coverage. Mike Thomas will see a lot more playing time given that Brooks is out. He has elite quickness and can gai exceptional separation from a defender in man situations. He has lined up on the left-side of the formation in 74%^ of his plays in the NFL and many times is put in motion ending up in the slot where a linebacker or safety is forced to defend him. That will be a great mismatch for the Rams to exploit.

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM EST, November 17, 2019
7-Star Bet is on the Falcons

This situational betting system has earned a 70-30 record good for 70% winning NFL bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are play on any team (ATLANTA) after five consecutive games where they forced no more than one turnover against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Atlanta is projected to gain 6.5 or more yards-per-play and score between 25 and 31 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections the Falcons have earned a solid 76-36 ATS record for 68% winning bets. Panthers are just 27-53-1 when allowing these performance measures.

7-Star on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis
1:00 PM EST, Sunday, November 17, 2019

Let us start with a situational betting system that has earned a 29-8 ATS record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on an underdog including pick-em that is coming off a 21 or greater point loss and is now facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their last game. This system is 9-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

Here is a second system that is working against the Colts and has earned a 67-28 SATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against any team that is lied between a 3-point underdog and a 3-point favorite in a conference matchup after going over the total by a combined mount of 35 or more points in their last five games.

Colts are 9-21 ATS in home games coming off a loss of six or fewer points.

I expect Jacksonville to score between 22 and 28 points. The Jaguars are 66-24 ATS for 73% winning bets when they have scored between 22 and 28 points and 18-7-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.
  

This situational query has earned a solid 59-28 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 18-10-1 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a road favorite in the month of November that is off a road loss.

The Buffalo Bills are not a good offensive team, but their defense is good and has kept them in games long enough to allow the offense to score a few points necessary to get the win. My proprietary ranks that adjust for opponents and their schedules shows that Buffalo ranks 24th in total offense, and 13th in total defense. The Fish rank 31st in both total offense and defense.

The veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick has brought a sense of calm to the fish having won their last two games, but the fish are no where close to being out of the woods.

Miami is just 40-111 ATS when they have rushed for fewer than 75 yards.

Buffalo is 35-7 ATS when they have outgained an opponent by 150 or more total yards.