Dave Price

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Dallas Mavericks -3.5 

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks are cheap today because they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.  But they played the last 3 on the road, and now they’re back home in a bounce back spot.  The Raptors will be playing their 5th straight road game here.  They remain without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, and I don’t believe they are good enough to beat a hungry Mavericks team on the road tonight without them.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Dallas. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* Utah State -4.5 

The Key: The Utah State Aggies have one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  That has helped them mask some other problems they’ve had when it comes to living up to expectations they created for themselves last year.  Despite the massive respect they’ve gained from their efforts last season, they’ve still managed to exceed expectations this year.  They are 5-4 ATS and coming off a 37-35 road win over Fresno State as 5-point dogs.  They racked up 525 yards on a solid Fresno State defense a week after gaining 521 yards on a good BYU defense.  That was one of the most misleading finals this season as Utah State lost 14-42 due to 5 turnovers.  The only games they really weren’t competitive in came on the road against Air Force and LSU, which is understandable seeing what those 2 teams are doing this year.  Wyoming lost a 17-20 heartbreaker at Boise State last week and won’t be recovered in time to face Utah State.  And the Cowboys lost their starting QB in Sean Chambers, who was playing great in leading Wyoming to a 6-2 start.  Chambers has 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and not having that dual-threat element with backup Tyler Vander Waal the rest of the way makes Wyoming very predictable.  Vander Waal was their starting QB last season and they were horrible with him at the helm.  Getting future NFL QB Jordan Love of Utah State as only a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup with Wyoming’s Vander Waal is a steal.  Take Utah State. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on UTEP +17.5 

The Key: The UAB Blazers played the easiest schedule in the country en route to their 6-1 start this season.  Their 6 wins came over Alabama State (by 5), Akron (by 11), South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and ODU.  Those games against terrible teams in Alabama State and Akron tell all you need to know about how down UAB is compared to last season when they won Conference USA.  And when they finally stepped up in class this year, they have gotten blown out the last 2 weeks by Tennessee (by 23) and Southern Miss (by 35).  Now UAB is without stud starting QB Tyler Johnson III, who meant everything to their offense.  There’s a reason they only scored 2 points against Southern Miss on a safety without him.  UTEP is good enough to stay within 17 points.  The Miners covered as 13-point dogs in a 21-28 loss to Charlotte last week to prove they have not quit.  UAB’s chances of winning Conference USA are pretty much out the window now that they have have 2 conference losses on the season, so don’t expect them to show up this week.  Take UTEP. 

Dave’s Saturday Free Play: 

1* on Baylor +10.5 

The Key: The Baylor Bears are 9-0 this season.  That’s significant since the Bears are double-digit home underdogs.  It’s only the second time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 or better team has been a 7-plus point home underdog.  The last one was Notre Dame (+7) back in 1993 when they beat Florida State outright.  Four of the last six 9-0 or better home underdogs have won outright.  And the two that lost the game straight up only lost by 3 and 10 points, respectively.  So Oklahoma will be trying to do something that hasn’t happened in 40 years Saturday.  They would have to beat Baylor by more than 10 points to cover this spread and make history.  I don’t see it happening.  Oklahoma has a leaky defense that has given up 41 and 48 points to mediocre Iowa State and Kansas State offenses, respectively, the last 2 weeks.  It’s starting to feel like the last few years when the Sooners win close games but don’t cover because while their offense is elite, their defense can’t stop anyone.  Baylor has the much better defense.  The Bears have allowed 27 or fewer points at the end of regulation in all 9 games this season, and 21 or fewer in 8 of those.  They are giving up just 16.3 PPG at the end of regulation this year, which makes them far and away the best defense in the Big 12, and thus the best defense that Oklahoma has faced yet.  The Bears will finally get the credit they deserve for their 9-0 record with a gutsy performance against Oklahoma.  You know Matt Rhule is playing the disrespect card as hard as he can letting players know they’re double-digit dogs.  Finally, Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog with 5 outright wins.  Take Baylor.

**2X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #6 NCAAF Capper in 2011 and the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2008 as well! Hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 3-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER*, his 6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* and his 6* Mountain West *CA$H COW*! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Sunday's NFL picks for FREE!

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota.