Bryan Power

7* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle is a team I flat out do not believe in. At 54-46, they are just 1.5 games off the pace in the AL Wild Card race. But this is a team that’s been outscored by 52 runs this season. That’s a comparable differential to the Tigers, who are just 47-54 on the year! In fact, with a run differential of -52, the Mariners’ win expectancy is 44! The 10-game gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball (no other team has outperformed expectations by more than four wins!). They are 23-8 in one-run games, including three straight wins by that exact margin. Ridiculous! 

Houston, who leads the AL West, is a team I very much believe in. I’ve got the Astros rated as the #1 team in the American League right now and #2 overall in MLB (Dodgers are #1). They’ve got the record to back it up at 61-39 and I see them coasting to a division title. The weekend saw the ‘Stros sweep a three-game series against the last place Rangers and they’ve won five of six overall. I’m not concerned about them hitting the road as they average 5.6 runs per game away from home, which is #1 in MLB. Seattle is averaging only 3.8 rpg at home while batting a paltry .203. The M’s are 30th in team batting average and OBP. 

Darren McCaughen, a rookie, will be making his first career big league start today for the Mariners. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, which is the only reason he’s being called upon in this spot. It’s a very tough spot facing the #1 offensive team in baseball. Luis Garcia, facing the worst ranked offense in baseball, should do well in this start for Houston. Garcia shut Cleveland out for six innings in his most recent start, which lasted six innings. There have been only two times in 16 starts where Garcia has allowed more than 3 ER. I like the Astros big here. 7* Houston

10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cincinnati missed out on a chance to sweep St. Louis again as they lost 10-6 on Sunday. Now they are set to face another divisional foe that they previously swept, that being the Cubs. It was Fourth of July weekend that the Reds won three one-run games over the Cubs at Great American Ballpark (2-1, 3-2 and 3-2). For the Cubs, that was part of an awful 11-game win streak that essentially took them out of the race in the NL Central. They’ve played better recently though and now get the Reds at Wrigley where they’re a strong 30-18 on the season. I expect the Cubs to gain a measure of revenge today.

The Over was a winner for me yesterday when the Reds hosted the Cardinals. That ended up being a 10-6 loss for Cincy as they fell victim to a seven-run inning (4th) and never really recovered. Pitching has been an issue for this team all season and ultimately will be the reason this club does NOT make the postseason. The only National League team to have allowed more runs than the Reds is Arizona and everyone knows how bad the D’backs are. 

Wade Miley will start Monday’s game for Cincy. He’s been their best starter as he tossed a no-hitter back on May 7th and has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. But he was fortunate to allow only two runs the last time he faced the Cubs as he also gave up 10 hits. Miley’s career ERA at Wrigley is 4.88. Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs. He’s 12-4 this year and has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his L13 starts, going at least six innings every time out. With Hendricks, the Cubs have the edge on the mound in this series opener. The Reds have dropped six of nine since the All-Star Break - all at home. 10* Chi Cubs