Bryan Power

7* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): Some will consider this a “nightmare” matchup for the Lightning as they face the team that shockingly swept them in the 1st round of LY’s playoffs. That would be Columbus, who outlasted Toronto in a wild five-game qualification series to get here. Tampa Bay had the chance to be the East’s top seed for a third year in a row, but lost 4-1 to Philadelphia on Saturday, setting up the matchup here.

The Lightning should be highly motivated coming into this series. When they faced Columbus in last year’s playoffs, they were coming off a historically great regular season, which made the four-game sweep all the more head-scratching. This has obviously been a much different season. Still, TB had the 2nd most points and was in position to earn the top seed. They won their first two round-robin games by 3-2 scores over Washington and Boston and did so w/o Steven Stamkos.

When Stamkos will return to the ice remains a question mark and now defenseman Victor Hedman is out as well after sustaining a lower-body injury during the loss to Philly. This is hardly ideal when going into a pressure-filled matchup, but I think the Lightning take care of business in Game 1. Columbus had to play five games against Toronto. They got great goaltending in that series, but TB led the league in goals during the regular season. The Blue Jackets actually had a negative goal differential (-7) this year. 7* Tampa Bay

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians were forced to make a pitching change for Tuesday’s contest with the Cubs as Adam Plutko will replace Mike Clevinger. Reason being Clevinger violated protocol by going out with reliever Zach Plesac for a “night on the town” in Chicago. The thing is, this isn’t much of a big deal - at least in the interim. Pitching has been fantastic for Cleveland thus far and while he’s made only one start compared to Clevinger’s three, Plutko actually has the superior numbers this season. 

Plutko’s only prior start vs. 7/28 vs. the White Sox, whom he held to two runs on just five hits. Both runs allowed were solo homers. As mentioned above, Indians’ pitching has been ridiculous so far with a MLB-leading 2.04 ERA and opponents batting just .188. The Tribe haven’t allowed more than five runs in any game this year. To put things in some perspective, Cleveland has played four MORE games than the Cubs yet has allowed 21 FEWER runs! 

The Indians and Cubs have the same number of wins (10) but the latter has only three losses due to their weekend series against St. Louis being called off due to COVID-19 concerns (with the Cardinals). So now there’s an issue of rust after the Cubs had to sit around all weekend. Jon Lester starts and while he’s been lights out his first two starts, the margin for error is slim when facing anyone on this Cleveland staff. If it comes down the bullpens, that’s a huge edge for the Indians. Don’t discount the “revenge factor” from the 2016 World Series either. The Indians are 6-2 at home thus far and have won five of their last six games overall. The Cubs last game (Thursday) saw them get beat 13-2 .. by the Royals. 8* Cleveland

8* Memphis (5:05 ET): After picking up a “statement” win over Toronto (122-100!) on Friday, the Celtics were able to avoid any kind of letdown in their next game. Granted, they needed OT to defeat Orlando on Sunday 122-119 and they failed to cover as 8.5-point chalk. Still, locked in as the the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will take that result. However, I do see motivation being an issue the rest of the way, certainly relative to their opponents for today’s game. 

While Boston’s playoff position is set, Memphis’ fate continues to hang in the balance. A 1-5 start here in Orlando has the Grizzlies hanging on by a thread to the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Three teams (Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio) are within one game of them and they still need a win just to clinch a place in Saturday’s “play-in game” (which has the potential to be a 2-game series) for the final playoff spot. A win here would take all the pressure off for the regular season finale (Thursday vs. Milwaukee). I’m taking the points. 

Save for a 121-92 win against Oklahoma City last Friday, where I had them, the Grizzlies have been struggling to find their shot here in the bubble. They lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the rest of the season and the starters had a bad collective game vs. Toronto Sunday (lost 108-99). But I can see them breaking out in this game, which Boston figures to take pretty lightly. For the Grizzlies, finishing 8th means everything as they would only need to win one play-in game (as opposed to two). Boston is 7-12 ATS off 3+ SU wins this season. 8* Memphis

6* Vegas (10:35 ET): Chicago has taken full advantage of the NHL’s 24-team bubble. Making the playoffs is something that would NOT have happened under ordinary circumstances. After all, the Blackhawks were in last place in the Central at the time of the stoppage. But by taking three of four from Edmonton in the qualification series, here they are in the Round of 16. But all that earned them was a date with now top-seeded Vegas and unlike Edmonton, the Golden Knights are hitting their stride at the right time. 

One could also say the Knights have taken advantage of this unique format. While they were leading the Pacific Division at the time of the stoppage, they would not have been the West’s #1 overall seed. They are now though, thanks to going 3-0 in round robin play. They averaged 5.0 goals in the three wins. Another thing worth noting is how the Golden Knights have terrorized the Blackhawks throughout their existence. They’ve won 9 of 10 all-time meetings. 

The Blackhawks are a 12-seed that probably shouldn’t be here. They had just 72 points. That’s the fewest of any team left with the exception of Montreal, the original 12-seed from the East that can at least claim a top tier goaltender. Here in the playoffs, they’ve been outshot. Not the case with Vegas, who is only allowing 26.3 shots per game since the restart. Keep in mind that the Knights swept their round robin games despite not having the services of Max Pacioretty, who led the team in goals/points in the reg season. He’s now expected back for Game 1.  6* Vegas

10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): Now that the A’s nine-game win streak is over (lost 10-9 to the Angels last night), it’s probably an opportune time to fade them. It was a pretty amazing comeback for the Angels yesterday, led by two Mike Trout home runs, as they were able to rally from an early five-run deficit. While the Halos are only 6-11 on the year, what’s interesting about them is they’ve been ML favorites in 10 of their games so far. They were underdogs yday, but are 45-25 as home favorites of -125 to -175 L3 seasons.

Last Thursday in Seattle, Dylan Bundy threw the first complete game for the Angels’ rotation going all the way back to 2018. I took him in that spot and it ended up being a 6-1 win behind Bundy’s 10 strikeouts. He allowed only one run on four hits. Bundy, who came over from Baltimore in the offseason, is off to a great start with his new club as he has a 2.08 ERA and 0.60 WHIP through three starts. 

I think it speaks volumes that the Angels are favored in this game. Oddsmakers pretty clearly have a high opinion of them and think they’re better than their record. Oakland is probably going to be without Ramon Laureano for this one as he’s bound to be suspended for his role in the brawl with Houston over the weekend. A’s starter Michael Fiers does have a 3-0 TSR, but his ERA is 5.63 and his WHIP is 1.312. Those numbers pale in comparison to Bundy’s. Fiers also has a 5.15 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. LA. I’ve had success taking the Angels this year and will definitely do so tonight. 10* LA Angels