Bryan Power

10* Over Rangers/Panthers (7:05 ET): These teams have gone Over the L7 times they've met, including a 6-5 Panthers victory at MSG this past Sunday. That game was a wild one w/ both teams getting 34+ shots on net and there were a total of seven power play goals scored. Scoring hasn't really subsided for either team since that game as Florida has now gone Over in three straight following a 5-4 win at Boston and a 4-3 loss (here at home) to Winnipeg. The Rangers just gave up a frightening NINE goals to Tampa Bay in their last game. Definitely take the Over here. 

Despite losing here to Winnipeg on Thursday night, the Panthers have to like their chances coming into tonight. They have the league's 5th best power play (at 25%) and over the L8 games they are hitting at a league-best 33% w/ the man advantage. Going against a team that just allowed nine goals, including five on the power play, has to have Florida licking its proverbial chops here. Thursday's embarrassing loss to the Lightning may have been a "new low" for the Rangers, but it was also the 4th time in the L9 games they've allowed 6+ goals. 

Even at 5 vs 5, you should expect Florida to score plenty tonight. This team is averaging 3.53 goals per game (tied for 6th overall) while getting off the 2nd most shots (34.8) per game. Here on home ice, both of those numbers go up. The Rangers allow the 2nd most shots per game. But there's hope for the Rangers here as well w/ the Panthers giving up 3.58 goals per game, 4th most in the league. The Blueshirts have scored at least three times in each of the last five games, scoring a total of 20 goals. 10* Over Rangers/Panthers

10* Over Capitals/Bruins (7:05 ET): Boston snapped a four-game losing skid last night by beating Toronto 4-2. But they're not "out of the woods" yet as tonight they've got to host Washington, who has again been the best team in the league this season. Not only do the Capitals lead the NHL in points w/ 32, but they are the highest-scoring team as well with 81 goals (3.9 per game). This matchup should produce plenty of scoring as the Bruins happen to average 4.0 gpg themselves at home. Take the Over. 

The Caps actually lost last night, 5-2 at home to Montreal. It was their second loss in three games, but before that they'd won six in a row. Pretty shocking is that the Caps have been held to just two goals in B2B games. They'd previously scored at least three goals in 16 consecutive games. It was the defense that failed them last night, giving up five goals to the Habs, four of them coming in the second period. They also allowed 40 shots. Goalie Braden Holtby will be back between the pipes tonight, but keep in mind the Over is still 11-3 in his 14 starts this season. His goals against average is a subpar 3.06. 

Last February, Boston snapped a 14-game losing streak against Washington w/ a 1-0 win in D.C. Don't expect this game to be anything like that one. The Bruins are going w/ a backup netminder, Jaroslav Halak, who has surrendered 4+ goals in three of his last four starts. The Capitals have scored 10 more goals than every other team in the league and already have eight games w/ 5+ goals. But as last night proved, they'll give up their fair share as well. Boston is #4 in the league in goals per game, so expect this to be a wild one Saturday night in Beantown. 10* Over Capitals/Bruins 

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): It appears as if the oddsmakers won't be letting off the Bucks "quite as easy" this year. Last season, the Bucks made the "quantum leap" into the NBA's elite by winning 60 regular season games and posting the best ATS record in the league. By any account, this season is off to a successful start as the team is 8-3 SU and won six of its last seven games while leading the league in scoring (120.3 PPG). But they're 0-4 ATS the L4 games. Look for that streak to end tonight as the Bucks catch Indiana playing in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. 

Indiana lost to Houston last night, 111-102, despite limiting the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting, including 14 of 46 from three-point range. The Pacers' own shooting was their undoing as they made just 24.2% from behind the three-point line. It was only the second loss in nine games for Indiana, the other coming by two points (in OT) at Charlotte. But my guess is they won't do as good a job at defending the three-point line tonight as they did against the Rockets. That means trouble when facing a team as prolific as Milwaukee. 

The Bucks are 4th in the league in three-point makes (13.9 per game) and 2nd in attempts (41.2 per game). Overall, they are shooting 47.3% from the floor and rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. They're also a very respectable 7th in defensive efficiency after leading the league in that department last season. The Bucks are rested and seven of their eight wins have been by at least five points. 10* Milwaukee

10* La Tech (6:00 ET): Off to a 2-0 start, Louisiana Tech is about to be tested for the 1st time as they pay a visit to Creighton. The Bulldogs have won both games by 33+ points and are averaging 90.0 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They held Texas A&M-CC and Wiley College to just 31% from the floor. While such wins really don't tell you a lot about a team, I feel that the contingent from Ruston makes for a LIVE underdog tonight. They are catching Creighton in a bad spot. Take the points. 

Creighton just lost to Michigan on Tuesday, 79-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They did lead at halftime, but couldn't slow down the Wolverines in the 2nd half. The Bluejays ended up allowing a 56.6 FG% for the game and that simply isn't going to cut it against a La Tech that's shot the lights out so far. Guarding the three-point line wasn't as easy against Michigan as it was vs. Kennesaw State (who went 3 for 20) and that could be a sign of things to come here. 

It's not easy winning here in Omaha where Creighton has gone 30-8 SU its L38 games. But the Bluejays are also 0-3 ATS the L3 times they've been asked to lay between 9.5 and 12 points on their own floor. Incredibly, they are also just 3 for 10 from FT line in two games! They don't have a single starter taller than 6'7". Despite grabbing 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan, they got only 13 pts off them, a shocking lack of efficiency. La Tech is an explosive offensive team that is great at forcing turnovers and this game will be a nice way to make it up to the fine folks in Ruston still angry about last night's loss on the football field. 10* La Tech

10* UCLA (8:00 ET): Since suffering a Friday night loss at USC back in September, Utah has looked like one of the best teams in the entire country. They've gone 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 25.6 points per game. But I'll call for that streak to end this week (at least the ATS one) as they play host to a UCLA team that has clearly improved in Chip Kelly's second year at Westwood. If you remember, I was on the USC upset of Utah. While the Utes arguably outplayed the Trojans that night, it was still a loss. Here, it's a lot of points to lay in what could be a flat spot.

UCLA has won three straight, all by double digits, and could actually move into a 1st place tie w/ the Utes were they to pull the outright upset Saturday night. Like Utah, they are coming off a bye. I actually think that favors the dog in this situation. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely here, the Bruins are definitely much better equipped to face the Utes than they've been in recent years. Their offense has run for 200+ yards in five straight games, so it will be interesting to see if Utah's top ranked run defense can slow that attack down. As dominant as Utah's winning streak looks, they actually trailed Washington by double digits two weeks ago and were still losing entering the 4th quarter.

UCLA has lost three in a row to Utah, the last two each coming by 31 points. I'm sure that will be on the minds of the coaching staff and players as they take the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Bowl eligibility is also hanging in the balance for the Bruins. To get there, they've still got to win two more games. They'll be favored to beat Cal in the regular season finale at home. But they'll still need to win either here or next week against rival USC. Bottom line is I expect a strong effort from the Bruins here. They have covered four of six games as an underdog this year, winning three of them outright. Three of the past five games, the Bruins' defense has allowed 20 points or less and the last game saw them hold Colorado to a season-low 14. Take the points. 10* UCLA

10* Air Force (7:00 ET): Air Force got an unexpected bye last week due to the tragic death of a New Mexico player. Originally, this week was set to conclude a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 weeks for the Flyboys and be their sixth road trip during that time. So the bye, while coming under the worst of circumstances, probably couldn't have come at a better time. Colorado State is also off a bye, their second in four weeks. The surprising Rams have won three in a row and covered five of their last six, but they are not a team I happen to believe in. I'm going to lay the points.

After four straight 7-6 seasons under Mike Bobo, Colorado State fell to 3-9 SU last year. They expected improvement in Fort Collins this year, but things did not look good early w/ a 1-5 SU start that included a 21-point loss to a Colorado team that Air Force beat on the road. Despite winning their last three games, let's not lose sight of the fact CSU has won only one game all year in which it was an underdog. That was an upset of Fresno State three weeks ago. The Rams have still been outscored on the year and a defense which has not been able to stop the AFA triple option in the past still remains a liability. 

After going 5-7 SU each of the last two years, Air Force has also improved in 2019. Only they've looked a lot more impressive in doing so. They've won four straight to get to 7-2 and have outscored opponents by 77 points during the win streak. I've had my finger on the pulse, taking them as a short favorite against Utah State (won 31-7) and then fading them as 16-pt chalk against Army (only won 17-13). Colorado State is clearly a much more favorable matchup than Army as the Falcons have beaten the Rams 12 of the last 15 tries, including each of the last three years where they've averaged 430.3 yards rushing per game! As alluded to above, CSU's run defense still isn't any good as they've still allowed 183.7 YPG over land during their 3-game win streak. On the other side of the ledger, the AFA defense ranks 9th nationally at stopping the run (97 YPG allowed) and Colorado State lost its leading rusher to a suspension. 10* Air Force

8* Missouri (12:00 ET): QB Kelly Bryant is set to return this week and that changes the whole dynamic for a Tigers team that has lost three in a row. All three of those losses, including 27-0 to Georgia last week, have been on the road. Clearly, without Bryant last week, they could get nothing going against one of the nation's top defenses. But now they are back in Columbia where they are a perfect 5-0 SU this season and have won every game by double digits! I'm not ready to give up on this team as last week was actually the 1st time all year that they were getting points! 

Florida has admittedly looked impressive this year as they are 8-2 SU (only losses are to LSU & Georgia). Coming off their own loss to Georgia (24-17), the Gators bounced back in a major way last week by shutting out Vandy 56-0. That was a game where I had the Over and the Gators did all the work themselves in punching me a winning ticket. But they were only up 14-0 at halftime before exploding for 28-point 3Q that included a defensive TD. Coming into the year, I did NOT expect this Gators team to match LY's 10-win total. I think the final two regular season games are going to be tricky. Unless UGA loses its next two (unlikely), then the Gators have nothing to play for (can't win division). That makes them prime fade material in my opinion.

Bryant and the home field edge are both huge factors in handicapping this game, but there is even more evidence to support a play on the underdog this week. Missouri has beaten Florida the L2 years by a combined 50 points and has won four of the six games as SEC rivals. Also, the Tigers have the SEC's #1 pass defense (147.7 YPG allowed) and that's key going against one-dimensional Florida offense that can't really run the ball. With Bryant in at QB, this team was once 5-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Really, every Tigers loss this year (besides last week) is pretty head-scratching. Take the points. 8* Missouri

8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State (3:30 ET): Central Michigan is not only coming off a bye week, but also five straight Overs. Key to that run though is that three of the five games took place in Mt. Pleasant where they average an impressive 43.0 PPG. In those three recent home games, the Chippewas scored 42 or more points. But this week will be a road game (in Muncie, IN) and on the road the Chips are averaging just 17.0 PPG, a massive decline. I like this game to go Under. 

Ball State was looking like it was having a breakthough season. Going into the final weekend of October, they were the only team MAC team w/o a conference loss. But now they've lost two in a row, 34-21 at home to Ohio and 35-31 at Western Michigan. That last game was played on a Tuesday and I cashed the Over. Interesting that they were facing a team that had gone Under in five straight. Now it's a team that's gone Over in five straight games. The Cardinals do average plenty of points here in Muncie, but I'm looking for some defensive improvement from them this week as well. 

This is the highest O/U line for any Central Michigan game since the last one that went Under (9.28 vs. Western Michigan). Something I'd like to point out w/ the Chippewas is that their defense has actually performed better than you think the L3 weeks. They've allowed just 323.7 YPG. These teams play every year and Ball State hasn't scored more than 24 points in any of the L4 meetings. The score was only 21-17 going into the 4Q last Tuesday vs. Western Michigan and only 28-24 w/ just over five minutes remaining. With the massive offensive decline CMU experiences on the road, Under is the right call here. 8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State

8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): While - on paper - this looks like a REAL ugly matchup out of the SEC, remember games are not played on paper. I anticipate it being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Last week, I took the Over w/ Vanderbilt. Even though they didn't score a single point, I still cashed a winning ticket! They gave up 56 points to Florida in a loss that guaranteed the Commodores won't be going bowling in Derrick Mason's 6th year here in Nashville. I have to wonder about the psyche of a defense following a loss like that. Take the Over again. 

Kentucky's offense has hardly been pretty this year. The Wildcats managed just 13 points last week as they lost outright as 3-pt home favorites to Tennessee (17-13). It was the sixth straight UK game to go Under the total. When they're on the road, the offensive numbers get quite dreadful as the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three games outside of Lexington this year. Ouch! But before losing to Tennessee, the Wildcats had put up 29 points (in an upset of Missouri) and I believe this offense is capable of much more w/ Lynn Bowden at the helm. They've run for 600 yards the L2 games despite a non-existent passing attack. UK will move the ball effectively this week. 

This game reminds me a lot of the Over play I had on South Alabama-Texas State last week. That too was a matchup of two putrid offensive teams (even worse than these two) that had nothing to play for. The game ended up being a 30-28 final and went Over midway in the third quarter. Kentucky did score 13 points in the 1st quarter last week before being shutout the rest of the way. But despite getting shutout in those final three quarters, the Wildcats had FIVE drives of at least 35 yds. Zero points on drives totaling 175+ yards is almost unheard-of inefficiency This Vandy offense did score 38 earlier this season on LSU, so there's hope for them too. We don't need many points here in what will be the lowest O/U line for either team this season . 8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt

8* Under Memphis/Houston (3:30 ET): If Memphis wins out, then they are going to be the Group of Five team that goes to the Cotton Bowl. I talked about that possibility when I took them all the way back in Week 1 vs. Ole Miss. The Tigers won that game against Rebels 15-10. But since then, they've scored 35 or more in every win (held to 28 in loss to Temple) w/ the last six games all going Over. We havent seen the Tigers since that epic 54-48 win over SMU two weeks ago. Off a bye, I'm looking for a little less scoring. Take the Under.

Houston's last two games have both gone Under by the tightest of margins. It was a 34-31 loss to SMU w/ a total of 66. Then it was a 44-29 loss at UCF where the total was 73.5. Still that proves they can go Under a high total when matched up against one of these elite AAC offenses. Remember that it's been a tumultuous 1st year for HC Dana Holgorsen. His star QB and WR both decided to redshirt midseason. It's a testament to his system that the offense has been able to score as much as they have. But, for the record, the Cougars have averaged just under 27 PPG the L4 weeks. 

Both teams are off a bye, so the offenses could come out a little rusty. Memphis will obviously find a way to score its fair share of points, but I'm also looking for them to play better defensively than they have in the last two games. In five of their first seven games, the Tigers allowed 24 points or less. My sense is they'll get back closer to that number here. Under Mike Norvell, the Memphis' offense has had its way with the Houston defense. But in their last home game, the Cougars did slow down an SMU offense that was averaging over 45 PPG. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times these teams have played in Houston. 8* Under Memphis/Houston