Bryan Power

10* Under Padres/Dodgers (4:05 ET): Both of the first two games in this series have managed to just sneak Over the total. I wasn't happy about it last night as I had the Under. SD scored a "meaningless" run in the top of the ninth to send the game Over, a real shame seeing as a game that was 6-0 after three innings was 7-1 heading into the ninth. Friday's game followed a different script as not only did the Padres win, but it was a 3-1 game entering the 8th before ending up a 5-3 final. Despite those two results, I feel all the elements necessary for an Under remain present for today. The Dodgers are still #1 in the NL in fewest runs allowed at home. San Diego remains one of the worst teams in baseball and will be facing nemesis Hyun-Jin Ryu Sunday. Take the Under. 

A case could be made that the Padres are Ryu's favorite opponent. He's 6-1 in nine career starts against them w/ a 2.52 ERA. He's faced them twice this season and allowed just two runs both times. One of them, he was fortunate to do so (also gave up 11 hits), but I'm not worried. The Padres are the favorite team to face for many NL starting pitchers as they come into this game ranked 27th in runs scored, 28th in slugging, 29th in batting average and 30th (last) in on base percentage. As discussed in yday's analysis, the Dodgers are holding visitors to an average of just 3.7 runs per game this year. Ryu has a 1.85 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in eight starts at Dodger Stadium. Ryu is a lefty and San Diego typically does not hit southpaws very well.

The only "X-factor" here is Padres' starter Joey Lucchesi, but he's coming off B2B quality starts and has allowed 3 ER or less his L5 times out. Both his ERA (3.23) and WHIP (1.099) are better on the road than at home. His two starts against the Dodgers this year have both stayed Under as he allowed just three runs each time while his own offense scored a grand total of two runs in the two games. The Dodgers' offense can run hot and cold and hasn't scored more than three runs in B2B games in 10 days. They've done it only twice in September. Six of LA's seven runs last night came in one innings, three of them on a Manny Machado home run. They shouldn't have that kind of "cluster luck" again today. 10* Under Padres/Dodgers

8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Steve Wilks era in Arizona has gotten off to a pretty disastrous start as the team has been outscored 58-6 w/ the lone scoring coming in garbage time in Week 1. As bad as that sounds, I see some real value on the Cardinals this week. They are catching Chicago on a short week, off an emotional home victory over Seattle (1st of Matt Nagy era). The Bears probably should be 2-0 as they had Green Bay "dead to rights" in the opener before falling victim to Aaron Rodgers (still covered though). While I'm 2-0 ATS taking the Bears this season, this is a rare instance of them being a road favorite and I'm not about to start trusting them in that role just yet. Take the points. 

It's going to be real difficult to sugarcoat Arizona's performances through the first two games. They have both been bad. Last week in particular as they gained just 137 total yards and did not run a play on the Rams' side of the field until the final play of the GAME. It's been almost 12 years since a team failed to cross midfield in a NFL game, so it was a historically bad effort. I suppose the Cardinals could do what the Browns did Thursday night and throw their own rookie QB (Josh Rosen) out there. I wouldn't disagree w/ such a move and if it came late in the game (meaning Cards are behind), the backdoor could at least be open w/ a Rosen spark. But also remember that Cleveland only changed QB's due to injury. Bottom line is I expect a far better effort out of Arizona at home this week. 

I think that it's also important that we not overrate Chicago. I say this as someone who considers them a darkhorse playoff candidate in the NFC. But looking at them right now, I don't see them as being ready to blow teams out on the road, even one as lowly as Arizona. It's pretty clear that the Chicago offense, specifically QB Mitchell Trubisky, has issues. First year HC Matt Nagy is doing a great job of scripting the offense's plays early, but after the 1st quarter, production goes in the tank. Over the final three quarters of the first two games, the Bears are averaging just about 3.5 yards per play. So Arizona is going to be able to hang around here in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. Going back to the 2014 season, the Bears have been road favorites just once (Wk 10 of '16 at Tampa Bay) and they lost that game outright, 36-10. 8* Arizona

10* Washington (1:00 ET): Facing Indianapolis and winning the battle of turnovers and total yards, the Redskins still found a way to lose by DOUBLE DIGITS last week at home. It was a disappointing effort all-around as their offense had to settle for three field goals while the Colts scored three touchdowns. Interesting though is that outside of Indy's three TD drives (all of which went for exactly 75 yards), they gained just 56 yards the rest of the game. Talk about opportunistic football. Speaking of opportunistic, the Packers should thank their lucky stars that they were able to escape w/ a tie LW vs. Minnesota. Yes, there was the bogus roughing the passer penalty on Clay Matthews. But Green Bay was outgained 480-351 in total yardage, including a stunning 2.1 yards per play! The Vikings also missed two kicks in overtime, not to mention had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. 

So Washington is now back in a more customary role of underdog this week and I like them at home. It's tough to put a ton of stock into the Week 1 victory at Arizona now that we have a better understanding just how bad the Cardinals are. A huge difference between Weeks 1 and 2 was how the Redskins ran the ball. Against Arizona, they ran the ball 42 times for 182 yards. Against Indianapolis, they ran it only 22 times (got down early) for just 65 yards. We should see a performance that lies "somewhere in between" this week. I also expect better performance on both third downs and in the red zone, on both sides of the ball, this week. Those two areas really cost them against the Colts. 

Remember that Green Bay should probably be 0-2 right now. They trailed Chicago 20-0 at home before Aaron Rodgers turned in an amazing come from behind effort to steal one. Rodgers is clearly still hurting and this is going to be a lingering issue the rest of the season. He isn't practicing much because of the knee and there is some (legit) concern that it will worsen if he continues playing on it. Another legit concern w/ this offense is the non-existent running game. Through two games, the Pack have just 167 yds rushing, which is near the bottom of the league. This team is only 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a field goal or less the last three seasons w/ three outright losses. If the Redskins can generate pressure on Rodgers Sunday, then this should be a relatively easy upset. 10* Washington

8* Oakland (1:00 ET): Jon Gruden's return to the Raiders is not going as planned as two poor second half showings have the team at 0-2. Last week's loss to Denver seems somewhat improbable when you consider QB Derek Carr completed 90% of his pass attempts, becoming the first player in NFL HISTORY to do so in a game where he had at least 27 attempts! Carr wasn't just "dinking and dunking" either as he threw for 288 yards. But it marked the second straight game where the Silver & Black failed to hold a halftime lead. A blocked XP ended up "biting them in the rear" as they lost the game 20-19 w/ the Broncos kicking a last second field goal. While many Raiders fans are disappointed w/ the team being 0-2, you have to remember they were underdogs in both games. 

They're underdogs again this week, but given the desperate circumstances, I'm not sure they should be. Far more surprising than Oakland being 0-2 is Miami being 2-0. The Dolphins have played well in both games as well, though it should be noted they faced the Titans and the Jets. Put a bit of an asterisk next to that Week 1 win at Tennessee as play was suspended multiple times due to weather and Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariota early. Last week, they were actually outgained 362-257 by the Jets, only to feast on three turnovers. Two of Miami's three touchdown drives started on the Jets' side of the field, one of them at the 15-yard line. I'm still not sold on QB Ryan Tannehill as anything special and this just has the feel of a "trap game" for the Fish.

Last year, Oakland came to Miami and won 27-24 as three-point favorites. I'm not sure enough has changed in a year's time to justify such a price swing. Say what you will about the Raiders, but they've gone 11-5 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less, including 4-2 as a road underdog. Gruden is doing good things w/ this offense as it currently ranks 6th in the league at 6.2 yards per play. Was it stupid to trade Khalil Mack, right before the season? Absolutely. Especially considering the lack of pass rush. Fortunately, Tannehill has been knocked around a lot the first two games. I just don't like Miami as a favorite in this spot. Will they be better than last year? Probably. But it's hard to see this team starting 3-0. Or the Raiders starting 0-3, for that matter. 8* Oakland

10* Under Bengals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Cincinnati has opened the season w/ a pair of wins, scoring a surprising 34 points in both games. I call that number "surprising" because not only is it a lot points - even by modern NFL standards - but this was an offense I thought was set to decline in 2018. That sounds surprising given that they averaged only 18.1 pts per contest, but they were also dead last in total yds. This week, they head to Carolina to face a Panthers' team whose offense I am also quite skeptical of this season. Last year, they averaged a decent 22.7 PPG (12th most), but were slightly below average in terms of total yards (19th). Personnel losses will take their toll here as well. The Panthers' defense wasn't very good last week, but not facing the Falcons in Atlanta again will help. Take the Under. 

Cincinnati being one of six teams to average 30 or more points per game through the first two weeks is impressive, but it also has a lot to do w/ who they've played. Indianapolis was their Week 1 opponent and has a horrendous defense, one that allowed the Bengals to gain 6.6 yards per play. Last Thursday vs. Baltimore, the Ravens' offense did a great job setting Cincy's offense up on two short fields (turnovers), which led to 10 points. The Bengals also got a non-offensive TD in the opener. It's not like their yards per game average is anything special; it's only 351. They will enter this game w/o their starting center (Billy Price) and running back (Joe Mixon), which is a problem when you consider this offensive line is already 2nd in sacks allowed and 17th in rushing yards.

Carolina's defense had an "off-week" against Atlanta in the dome. The Falcons usually aren't very good in the red zone, yet converted all four opportunities into TD's. I had the Over in that game and cashed. This week is a much different story. I look for Ron Rivera's defense to be more reminiscent of what we saw in Wk 1 vs. the Cowboys when they produced six sacks and allowed only 8 points and 232 total yds. But on offense, Cam Newton is w/o his favorite target (Greg Olsen) for the rest of the season. Right now, a RB (Christian McCaffery) is the team's leading receiver. Newton is its leading rusher. That's not what you want to see, even as early as Week 3. Look for an ugly slugfest on Sunday. 10* Under Bengals/Panthers