Bryan Power

8* Colorado (3:10 ET): I'm no huge fan of the Rockies, but I'm even more skeptical of a Mariners team that has somehow managed to go 58-38 in the first half despite not actually outscoring their opponents! That "somehow" is a totally unsustainable 26-11 record in one-run games (plus, let's throw in the fact they are also 8-0 in extra innings!). Seattle is lucky in that they'll head into the ASB w/ a pretty significant lead for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. But I expect this team to be a BIG-time regressor in the second half and, in fact, we've already started to see some of that as they've dropped six of their last eight games overall. That includes the first two of this three-game set at Coors Field where the Rockies have suddenly turned it around, winning 6 of 7.

Overall, Colorado has won five straight series, all against teams w/ .500 or better records. They're still fighting for relevancy in the NL West where they currently in third place behind the Dodgers & D'backs. Truthfully, I do not believe this to be a playoff team (they were LY) as they too (like Seattle) have a negative run differential for the year. But there's no denying they are a hot team right now (won 9 of 11) and they also will send a hot starter to the mound Sunday in the form of Tyler Anderson, who has allowed all of one run in his L3 starts (22 IP). Anderson has a 0.41 ERA and 0.727 WHIP during that time as he's allowed a ridiculously low nine hits. The last two starts have occurred here at home and remember he'll be facing a "weakened" Seattle lineup here, one that's w/o the usual DH spot in the order (National League park).

After scoring seven times in Friday's opener (but they still lost), the M's were held to just one run last night. That won't cut it regardless of the circumstance, but given the way Sunday starter Mike Leake has pitched of late, they could be in some real trouble here. Leake, whose 13-6 TSR is somewhat misleading, has a 6.00 ERA and 1.933 WHIP his L3 outings. He gave up seven runs on 11 hits - in just four innings - his last time out and had only one strikeout. It was his second straight start going only four innings (both against the Angels). I mentioned the likely regression earlier, but Seattle is now assured of dropping three straight series for the 1st time all season. They are just 1-4 vs. Colorado this year and I believe this overachieving ballclub continues to come back "down to Earth" on this final day before the Break. 8* Colorado

8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): For whatever reason, the Indians just can't seem to beat the Yankees. Well, technically, they did on Friday (and I had 'em), but after yday it's eight losses in the last nine head to head meetings, a streak which dates back to last year's infamous LDS (Indians blew 2-0 series lead). However, I feel that they'll beat the team wearing pinstripes today and head into the ASB w/ some positive "momentum" (hate that word!). The Tribe are too good of a home team to pass up at this price (they lead all of MLB in scoring at home) and starter Trevor Bauer has been relatively lights out of late, despite a 1-2 TSR his L3 starts. These teams are a lot more even than the head to head results this year suggest. Look for the Indians to earn themselves a series split on Sunday. 

Over those L3 starts, the enigmatic Bauer has a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. Despite his 10-9 TSR overall, he's pitched quite well all season, owning a 2.30 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. The team has been a lot more successful when he pitches here at home (6-3 in his 9 starts here) and last time out he was truly dominant w/ 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings vs. the Reds. It was the sixth time in his last nine starts overall that Bauer finished w/ 11 or more K's. He has a 1.58 ERA and 0.935 his L7 starts w/ a 71-13 KW ratio in 51 1/3 IP. He has not lost since June 13th, holding opponents to a .192 batting average since while striking out 12.1 hitters per nine innings. He's tied for second in the AL in ERA (w/ Boston's Chris Sale) and also third in both strikeouts and innings pitched. It's pretty easy to understand why this guy is an All-Star, no?

Bauer will be opposed here by Masahiro Tanaka, who has gone three months w/o taking a loss, although his ERA is 4.12 during that time. Despite being unbeaten in nine road starts (5-0), his ERA in those games is 4.91. Now, he does have a much better WHIP than ERA, but I still view him as the inferior starting pitcher in this particular matchup. There's no denying the Yankees have the better bullpen compared to Cleveland, but the latter is too good a home team to keep getting held down. They've outscored visitors by 1.4 rpg here at Progressive Field for the season and I believe will get to Tanaka early in thos one. Meanwhile, I look for Bauer to shut the Yankees' bats down. 8* Cleveland

8* Washington (1:10 ET): Earlier this month, the Nationals took the first three games of a four-game set from the lowly Marlins and appeared poised to make a run to the top of the NL East. However, they lost the finale of that series and have now dropped five of seven entering the final day before the All-Star Break. They will go into the Break third in the NL East, but despite facing a 6.5-game gap, the Nats really aren't playing that much worse than the top two teams in the division. Well, maybe compared to Atlanta. But they actually have a slightly better run differential than 1st place Philadelphia! They're certainly better than today's opponent, the Mets, although they've lost to them each of the last two days. But I see big win here going into the Break for the team from the Nation's Capital. 

The Mets started 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callaway. Since then, the bottom has dropped out. They've gone 28-53 the L81 games and haven't won a series since a sweep of Arizona back in mid-May. That's what they're going for today, plus a third straight win at home, something they also haven't done in nearly two months! Yesterday saw starter Zach Wheeler pitch into the eighth inning for the first time in four seasons and win for the first time since April 29th. But I wouldn't count on getting the same from rookie Corey Oswalt today. In three starts so far, Oswalt has a 7.81 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. He is actually coming off his 1st quality start as he went six innings and allowed just one hit against Philadelphia on Monday. But he also had three walks and that led to him allowing three runs despite just the one hit. 

Jeremy Hellickson hasn't exactly been durable for the Nats, but he did toss five scoreless innings of two-hit ball his last time out. Save for one terrible showing vs. Miami earlier this month, Hellickson has allowed 3 ER or fewer in every other start this season. Now, he's made it through six innings just once, but at least he's taking care of the early innings. It's not like the Mets are an offensive juggernaut, in fact, it's quite the opposite as they rank 25th or lower in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. The Nats actually have a losing record TY vs. the Mets (just 3-6!), but I can't see that continuing as I believe this team is due for bigger & better things in the second half. 8* Washington

10* France (11:00 AM ET): Let's give Croatia a ton of credit. They have had to win three consecutive matches in extra time (two via penalty kicks) just to get to their first Cup final since becoming an independent nation. The last one, where I offered my endorsement, saw them come from behind to upset England. This team has not tasted defeat here in Russia and enters Sunday have been beaten only one time (2-0 by Brazil in an Int'l Friendly) since March. But here's where reality sets in. They are up against a clearly superior side and that has now played an entire 90 minutes LESS of football in Russia (add up Croatia's three games of extra time). Nevermind the fact France had an extra day to prepare for Sunday's final anyway. Just like in 1998, Les Bleus will win the World Cup and they'll do so inside of 90 minutes (plus injury time). 

France does have one draw in its six matches in this World Cup, but that was a meaningless affair at the end of the Group Stage vs. Denmark. Incredibly, they have kept a clean sheet in four of the last five matches and doing so again here would not really surprise me. The only real time Les Bleus has been in trouble in this tournament was when they briefly trailed Argentina 2-1 in the Rd of 16. But even then, they quickly stormed back w/ three goals of their own in a 10-minute span to seize back control. They've since blanked both Uruguay & Belgium, two fine sides that are better than any opponent Croatia has faced so far. 

In handicapping this matchup, the fact Croatia has had to play an extra 90 minutes of football obviously looms large. It hasn't caught up w/ them yet, but tired legs could start to show here at the most inopportune time. Consider that no team EVER has won three straight WC matches in extra time. Given the string of clean sheets, it's readily apparent that France's goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris, is in top form right now. I see it being very difficult for Croatia to get one past him. As for Croatia, they've conceded at least once in four straight matches. I know they were the host country, but not being able to put away Russia inside 90 mins wasn't exactly inspiring. I still took them against England (plus the 0.5) feeling that The Three Lions were being vastly overrated in the spot, but that simply isn't the case for France here. 10* France