Bryan Power

10* St. John’s (2:30 ET): It just feels right to be able to once again call these teams conference rivals. UConn has rejoined the Big East this season and this will be the first meeting w/ St, John’s since 2013. The Huskies not only comes in ranked (#25), but they’ve covered six in a row. The Huskies’ only loss came by two points against Creighton (a top 10 team). They’ve won four straight (SU) since including a 3-0 January record with all those games coming on the road. UConn hasn’t taken the court in a week due to a game with #3 Villanova being postponed. This game will be on FOX Monday afternoon.

St. John’s hasn’t had nearly the amount of problems with COVID cancellations than UConn has. The Red Storm have played nearly twice the number of games the Huskies have and come into today sporting a 7-7 SU record. It’s been a bit of a struggle recently as the team started 5-1, but has now dropped six of its last eight including a 2-point home loss to Marquette on Saturday. As an underdog, the Johnnies have struggled and they are also winless on the road (0-4 SU). They are in both roles Monday, but I’m expecting this to be a strong effort off the narrow loss 48 hours ago. 

This boils down to the fact that I feel UConn is due for a bad game. Coming off a week layoff and playing a rare weekday afternoon game, it just “feels” like this might be it. St. John’s has had several narrow losses, just not Saturday, while UConn’s won a couple close ones. The Huskies are without leading scorer James Bouknight and quite frankly were lucky to beat Depaul last week as they were outrebounded and shot the ball poorly. Depaul was careless with the basketball and that’s why UConn won the game. St. John’s averages almost 80 PPG and will be a lot tougher to beat. Take the points. 10* St. Johns

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Lakers, as expected, have been very good this season as they lead the Western Conference with an 11-3 SU record. They’ve won five in a row and 9 of their last 10. Their YTD point differential (+11.0 per game) is the league’s best and their net efficiency rating is right on par with Milwaukee. What I’m saying is that, yes, the defending NBA Champs are again the team to beat. They’ve won four straight by double digits, but look for tonight’s game to be a little closer than expected as they’re facing a Golden State team that’s eager to get back to the pinnacle of the league once again.

Last year was an injury-induced disaster for the three-time champion Warriors and a bounce back was all but assured for 2020-21. Just how much they “bounce back” remains to be seen as the Dubs currently sit 8th in the West and aren’t the same offensive juggernaut they used to be. They’ve lost B2B games - to Indiana and Denver - and had a game vs. Phoenix postponed on Friday. Having not played since Thursday, I’m expecting a hot start here from the fresh Warriors in this nationally televised affair. 

One key for the Dubs will be maintaining their recent play on the defensive end. They’ve held six straight opponents under 115 points and if they can do that again here, they should be able to easily cover the large spread. The Lakers have actually lost each of the L3 years on MLK Day -- by a total of 60 points! Also, all three losses this season have come at home. With a game at Milwaukee later this week, the Lakers may be overlooking the Warriors and that would be a mistake. I smell a big game from Steph Curry. 10* Golden State

8* VMI (7:30 ET): These SoCon rivals met three times last year, once in the Conference Tourney, and while East Tennessee State won all three games straight up, it was VMI that covered the spread every time. The losses were by six, five and 13 points and the Keydets have nothing to hang their heads over as East Tenn State was a good team last season. This season, the Buccaneers aren’t quite as strong, hence this line being in the single digits (something that wasn’t the case in any of the three meetings LY). 

VMI is a strong offensive team, which was very evident on Saturday when they defeated The Citadel 110-103. No, there was no overtime. The Keydets are now averaging 82.1 PPG on the season, so it’s going to either take a lot of points by ETSU, or a really strong defensive effort, to cover the number here. VMI is 7-3 ATS on the year, including 4-0 if they allowed 80+ points the previous game. I realize their defense is shaky, but this is a spot the Keydets usually cover in. Also, two of their last four losses have been by two points. 

East Tennessee State is coming off a loss, 78-66 at Wofford where they were 9.5-point underdogs. That was their first game in two weeks, but it was late, not early, that saw them struggle. The Buccaneers can’t score at the rate VMI does and while they are the better defensive team here, I don’t think they’ll be able to contain the opponent enough to cover this large of a spread. ETSU has only been favored in three games so far and only one time by more than 3.5 points. They failed to cover, laying 12.5 to Gardner-Webb. Two of ETSU’s last three opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. 8* VMI

10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal (3:00 ET): After winning four in a row across all competitions, Arsenal had to settle for a scoreless draw with Crystal Palace on Thursday, leaving the Gunners 11th in the Premier League table. On the bright side, it was a fourth consecutive clean sheet, a pretty remarkable run for a side that was struggling in the early part of the campaign. While it’s still going to take a lot to catch those at the top of the table, a full three points should be expected here as they face a Newcastle United club they recently down in FA Cup action. 

Newcastle suffered a humiliating defeat its last time out, 1-0 against previously winless Sheffield United. That loss came on the back of the 2-0 loss to Arsenal in the FA Cup. Not only are they winless in their last six across all competitions, Newcastle has been kept clean in four of their last five matches. This has prompted manager Steve Bruce to consider a change in strategy and you may now see only four back on defense, rather than five.

While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Newcastle sits 15th in the table. I expect them to be a lot more aggressive here. The aggressive nature is still unlikely to translate into victory, but I expect the Magpies to at least get on the scoresheet. The flip side of the aggressive approach is that they may open themselves up for more Arsenal scoring. The Gunners have won five straight over the Magpies, keeping them clean in the last four. That’s a streak I can’t see continuing. A 2-1 Arsenal win is the most likely outcome here and I’ll take the Over. 10* Over Newcastle United/Arsenal

8* AC Milan (2:45 ET): This ML somewhat reminds me of yday’s play on Tottenham. It’s just too low for the Serie A table leaders AC Milan, who I can’t see losing or even settling for a draw against a Cagliari side that is in terrible form right now. The Rossoneri currently have 40 points, which has them level with rival Internazionale atop the standings for the time being. They’ve been beaten just one time this season and that was by 9-time defending champ Juventus two weeks ago. Getting the full three points here will be a priority.

Cagliari can only think about avoiding relegation at this point. They are on a 10-match winless streak across all competitions and have lost four straight here in Serie A, the side’s longest losing streak since 2013. This precipitous slide has them down in 17th, only one point clear of the relegation zone. Midweek saw them get eliminated from the Coppa Italia as they were soundly beaten by Atalanta 3-1. This particular fixture has been quite unkind to Cagliari as they’ve won only one of their past 16 home matches against AC Milan, losing nine.

Meanwhile, Milan is through to the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia by virtue of a win over Torino (on penalty kicks) last Tuesday. That took place two days before Cagliari’s exit from the tournament, so the favorite has the additional bonus of two extra days off between matches. Plus Zlatan Ibrahimovic is back in the starting lineup. He’s scored in each of his last six league matches vs. Cagliari, so look for a little added “offensive punch” from the visitors, who happen to have also kept a clean sheet against three of their previous four opponents across all competitions. 8* AC Milan