Bryan Power

8* Georgia State (2:00 ET): The Sun Belt Championship Game has wormed its way onto Selection Sunday, but this matchup between UT Arlington and Georgia State may have the most value on the board. The top two seeds benefited tremendously from the SBC Tourney format, which gave both of them a bye into the semifinals, which means they each only had to win one game to get here. Those games were played yday w/ Georgia State beating Texas State 59-46 & UT Arlington beating Georgia Southern 67-58. Georgia State won both regular season matchups against UT Arlington and thus is the top seed here. I look for them to make it 3 for 3 on Sunday. Lay the points.

You may remember Georgia State from a few years ago when they pulled a historic upset (15-seed over a 2) against Michigan State. Ron Hunter is still the coach here and the program is obviously doing well. The Panthers hold non-conference victories this year over East Tennessee State, Alabama, Georgia and a St. Bonaventure team that may end up making the Big Dance. I put a high priority on defense this time of year and Georgia State certainly turned in a strong effort on that end of the floor yday. They held Texas State to 21.8% shooting (season-low for an opponent) and only 15 first half points. It was the Panthers' seventh win in their last eight games and they are 4-0 SU/ATS L4. 

The two regular seasons wins over UT Arlington both saw Georgia State play outstanding defense. They held the Mavericks to 37.5% shooting overall and just 10 of 52 from three-point range. In the home game, UT Arlington shot just 2 of 25 from behind the arc! Despite attempting far more shots, the Mavericks couldn't get the job done either game. Now they did cover in both losses. They lost by five as 6.5-pt home dogs and six as 8-pt road dogs. So this looks like a value on the favorite here. UT Arlington is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run, but that ends here. 8* Georgia State 

10* Under Panthers/Ducks (9:05 ET): Neither of these teams will be going to the playoffs, but those respective fates have been known for some time now. Anaheim actually has the 2nd worst goal differential in the sport (-55) right now, which is due in large part to the fact they are the lowest scoring team in the league. But they have been somewhat of a "tough out" down the stretch, winning five of their last eight games. They just dealt a severe blow to Colorado's playoff chances w/ a 5-3 road win on Friday. I don't think they'll be scoring anywhere close to five goals again tonight though. 

Similar to Anaheim, Florida may be out of realistic playoff contention, but they haven't given up on the season. The Panthers are on a four-game win streak entering tonight as they just won in LA, 4-3, Saturday night. They've totaled 20 goals during the four-game win streak. But that's an average I cannot see being maintained moving forward. This is one of the highest scoring stretches of the year for the Panthers and thus they are due for a bit of a "correction." The Under is 4-1-2 in their last seven meetings w/ the Ducks. 

Anaheim is a pretty clear Under team, which is just the opposite of Florida. The Ducks are 22-8-1 Under against Eastern Conference teams this season and an even stronger trend is the fact they are 9-1 Under following a win by two or more goals. Both offenses are set to "cool off" here. 10* Under Panthers/Ducks

10* Auburn (1:00 ET): A late rally yday led to Tennessee stunning Kentucky in one SEC semifinal. The other one saw Auburn stave off Florida after appearing to get away w/ a foul on the potential game-tying three-pointer. Pay no mind to the respective seeding of these two teams. Tennessee might be the 3-seed in the SEC, but they're very much in play for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament were they to win today. Auburn, the #5 seed in the SEC Tournament, is a top 15 team in my eyes and an opponent no one will want to face next week. Only one can win here, obviously. I'll take the points as I'm not at all surprised Auburn got here. They've underachieved somewhat this season, but are finally starting to perform up to expectations. 

Looking at the stat sheet from yday, it's somewhat miraculous that Auburn beat Florida. The Gators shot 60% from the field (season-high) and finished w/ a 32-17 advantage on the boards. But the Tigers did win. They held Florida to a season-low in shot attempts (38) and also converted 19 turnovers into 20 points. Auburn had 56 shot attempts to Florida's 38 and also killed them from three-point range. They were 13 of 29 from behind the arc while the Gators were just 6 of 15. The fact Auburn attempted only five free throws (made only two!) didn't even matter. Really, it was a remarkable performance. 

With just under three minutes to go, Kentucky led Tennessee by eight. As someone holding a UK ticket, I was thinking cover not an outright loss. Back when the Vols were ranked #1 in the country, I was leery of them. In some ways, I still am. This game figures to have plenty of emotion w/ former Tennessee HC Bruce Pearl now coaching Auburn. Of course, this is not the first time Pearl has taken on his former school. In fact, he just beat them 84-80 (as a 2.5-pt home dog) last week. Auburn has now won seven in a row and I give them an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset yet again. 10* Auburn

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Bad spot for Brooklyn here as they just got beat in Utah last night and now have to head further West to take on the rested Clippers. The Nets have not been a good bet in the second game of a back to back this season, going just 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS. They also lose roughly two-thirds of the time when priced as an underdog. They were never really "in it" last night vs. the Jazz, trailing by double digits most of the way. They shot just 35 percent and were dominated on the glass. The loss dropped Brooklyn to 2-6 ATS in the month of March.

The last time we saw the Clippers, they were beating the Bulls 128-121 Friday night. This will be the fifth game of a six-game homestand, so the situation is totally in their favor tonight. The Clippers are looking like a real safe bet to make the playoffs right now as they've won six of seven games in March and have a six-game cushion over ninth place Sacramento w/ just 12 games to play. The top eight in the West have really been solidified at this point. But position is still up for grabs among the top eight and the Clips have a very realistic shot at moving up the standings. They could finish as high as as 3rd (unlikely) were everything to break right. 

Brooklyn is 7th in the East, which has a far more congested race for the bottom few spots. It's a 3.5 game lead over ninth place Orlando and Charlotte, so it's not time to panic yet, but the Nets aren't playing well. They've been held under 100 pts in B2B games for just the third time all year and have really been dominated on the glass in their last two games. As touched on earlier, things have not been good in the second game of a back to back as they're being outscored by 10.4 PPG in that spot. They've also lost seven straight times on the road to the Clippers. Huge edges to the home team in this one. 10* LA Clippers

8* Under Hornets/Heat (1:05 ET): These division foes met not that long ago. It's only been 10 days, in fact, since the Heat prevailed 91-84 in Charlotte. The Hornets had won both previous matchups, but those came all the way back in October. Nevertheless, right now, these teams are locked in a tight battle for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami currently has the edge, but only by a game as they just took a horrendous loss Friday to Milwaukee. Under normal circumstances, losing to the Bucks would not be a big deal. But the Heat blew a 20-point lead at home. 

Charlotte won its last game, 116-110, in Washington. The result was much needed as it stopped a five-game ATS losing skid. It was also just the third win in the last nine games (second over the Wizards). Note that since losing to Miami, the Hornets have been involved in four straight high scoring games, all of them seeing at least 223 or more total pts scored. But I think this one will shape up similar to the last game w/ the Heat where neither team shot the ball particularly well. The Hornets had a 40-point 1st quarter against the Wizards Friday, something that I don't see happening here against a much better defensive foe.

The Under is 11-5 in the L16 meetings, including 5-2 here in Miami. But that's not likely to be what's on the minds of the Heat players heading into this one. Rather, it's "how did we let that one slip away against Milwaukee?" Giving up 73 second half points certainly didn't help, but then again, the Bucks are arguably the top offensive team in the league not named the Warriors. Charlotte is probably incapable of a similar barrage. The Heat remain a top 10 team in defensive efficiency, but they wound up only shooting 40.9% against the Bucks. A division battle this late in the season has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 8* Under Hornets/Heat