Alex Smart

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - HOU Leads 3-2

This series is becoming intense and defense and not offense I'm betting will win this series. Golden State needs this game badly, or a surprising elimination from the post season will be on tomorrows media agenda. With that said, you can bet the Dubs will come out with all guns blazing, but the Rockets under rated D, will be primed to slow them down. On the other end of the court , Houston 's offense has been sputtering , and James Harden is slumping offensively and Chris Paul is out, so great deal of emphasis for the Rockets will center on their defense. Under the total is my call this evening.

 Golden State has gone under 16 straight times  as a rested favorite of at least five points when they are off a game in which they rebounded 15% or less of their own misses. Houston  has gone UNDER 11 straight times by an average of more than 13 ppg after a game with 8+ lead changes and has stayed under 8 straight times by more than 17.6 ppg with less than two days rest off a home win when they are facing a side that is averaging more than five blocks per game.

HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with the combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined score of  203.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER   in home games in all playoff games since 1996 with t combined average of 205.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 48-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)

Houston has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 19-4 and once again look like they matchup very well against the Tribe.On May 20 in Houston, McCullers and the Astros beat Carrasco and the Indians 3-1 and a repeat type performance is a strong possibility. Note: HOUSTON is 15-3  against the money line in road games after a win by 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons which happened yesterday.

CLEVELAND is 4-12 against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season.

The Cleveland Indians are 0-9 on the moneyline  in franchise history with Carrasco at home when their bullpen gave up 3+ runs yesterday.  Carrasco has six straight non-quality starts as the Indians lost by multiple runs.

CARRASCO is 1-7  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons

MLB Road teams (HOUSTON) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA  4.50 or less ), with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games are 37-14 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros on the moneyline

The Connecticut Sun blasted out of the gate this season with a huge win vs the Las Vegas Aces by a 101-65 count, and than followed that up with a hard fought come from behind 102-94  win vs a top tier LA Sparks team. That last game, was exhausting both physically and mentally and now a natural letdown scenario is a strong possibility, as I'm betting they will take more casual approach to this  game against an Indiana side that is a lowly  0-4 on the season.

CONNECTICUT is 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games off 2 or more consecutive home wins .

NBA Road teams (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in May, June, or July games are 41-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover

 JORDAN LYLES (R) vs. ALEX WOOD (L)

The Dodgers are finally getting over last seasons,  play off hangover, and starting to notch wins (7-1 L/8). They were hard luck recipients of a lot of bad breaks earlier this season, as was evident by  the Dodgers  plus-19 run differential but a below .500 23-27 record.

Today the pitching matchup I'm betting favors the Dodgers as Alex  Wood  as he  goes to the hill in top form. Wood has garnered  a very viable 3.32 ERA over 10 starts during the season's first two months. He  is 4-2 in 13 appearances (nine starts) over his career against the Padres, while posting a 2.39 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Padres return fire with Lyles who despite of decent starts of late  is just  0-3 with a 6.97 ERA in 15 career appearances against the Dodgers, six of them starts. My own power rankings suggest that the Dodgers nine matchup well vs the righty hurler. Note: LYLES when he starts has seen his team go 2-18 L/20 against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 losing SU by an average of 3.1 rpg.

LA DODGERS are 13-0 SU in  line in home games after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons. which happened last time out, with the average margin of victory coming by 3.3 rpg.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are 8-68 L/21 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate over the L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 2.7 rpg , which makes the runline option here a tangible proposition.

Play on the LA Dodgers on the runline -1.5

CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R) vs. DANIEL MENGDEN (R)

Losers of seven straight and 13 of 14 before making the trip to Oakland, Arizona was in a full nose dive  entering play here in Oakland yesterday, until a miraculous complete team effort buoyed them to a win yesterday in the the opening game in this series. However, their inconsistency remains an issue, and I'm doubting they have suddenly found their way out of this slump just yet and I'm betting against them here in this spot.

The DBacks will send former Boston Red Sox starter  out for his  10th career start against the A's. He has a winning record ( 4-2 ) vs the As but has a troubling  6.85 ERA in the first nine.He has not enjoyed pitching at the Coliseum in Oakland, going 1-2 with a 9.58 ERA in three starts. Meanwhile, As starter Mengden (4-4, 3.30) has never faced the Diamondbacks, but h has gone 3-3 with a 3.74 ERA in seven interleague starts. The righty hurler has looked to be in top form in May, allowing just four earned runs in 24 2/3 innings over four starts and get the nod again here.

Diamondbacks are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Athletics are 5-1 in Mengdens last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

OAKLAND is 21-10   against the money line after a 3 game span where the bullpen threw 13 total innings or more over the last couple of seasons.

MLB All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (OAKLAND) - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings, cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games are 45-7 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Oakland As to win on the moneyline