Alex Smart

Kawhi Leonard and Amir Coffey are expected to miss tonight for the Clippers which will effect their flow. Meanwhile, Atlanta is also short handed with a boat load full of injuries, something that will also effect their flow, especially since they will be on tired legs playing their their 4th straight road game in west coast road trip in less than a week. 

The Clippers are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a home favorite with a combined average of 199 ppg going on the board. 

Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana played last night in Houston  so they should be on tired legs, but what impresses me about this team is their never say die attitude. I mean these guys are like energizer bunnies and must never be underestimated , even against a top tier team like Milwaukee. Last night the  Pacers limited the sharp shooting Rockets to 14 of 46 (30.4 percent) from long distance and just 40.4 percent shooting overall and Im betting that can replicate those numbers again here on their own home floor in a key divisional matchup vs another strong downtown shooting team. 

Indiana is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series at home. 

Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Pacers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Pacers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, on Saturday games are  just 30-77 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Brooklyn is 1-3 on the trip and is coming off three straight losses to the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets and in their current form fade material vs the Chicago Bulls. 

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.

Nets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Saturday games.Nets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Nets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

The Nets are 77-238 ATS since 1995 as a road dog after playing as a road dog.

Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The reason for the Dallas Stars' early-season rebound?

According to center Tyler Seguin, they've gotten back to their "greasy ways." 

What Sequin means by that is the team is back to playing a very disciplined defensive system. The Stars opened the season 1-7-1, but are 9-1-1 since and are my choice here vs what is a talented but undisciplined Edmonton side. 

DALLAS is 11-4 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons.

EDMONTON is 1-9 ATS after scoring 3 goals or more in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NHL Home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (EDMONTON) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-70% or more of their games on the season are 69-38 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to win on the ML

The Bruins are entering the 2019-2020 season following some of their most historic seasons ever. Fans saw coach Rick Byrd’s 800th win, the program’s first ever at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament and even its first ever win in the tournament and with with young superstars like Nick Muszynski, Grayson Murphy and Mitch Listau, this team remains capable of huge things, and matchup well here vs BC today. 

BELMONT is 9-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.BELMONT is 15-4 ATS  after a game where they made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons.Alexander is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game in all games he has coached since 1997.Alexander is 18-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick in all games he has coached since 1997.

Play on Belmont to cover 

Spartan Invitational - 2nd Rd - Greensboro Coliseum - Greensboro, NC

MONTANA ST is 11-2 ATS  versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

UNC-GREENSBORO is 11-25 L/36  ATS versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of  39% or less. 

Tulane looks to start the season 3-0 for the second time in the last three seasons and build on its +15.0 scoring margin against opponents following its first two wins over Southeastern Louisiana and Jackson State. My power rankings and matchup stats say they can do it and convincingly. 

CBB  favorite (TULANE) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 7+ losses in last 8 games are 60-33 ATS L/23 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

at Scotiabank Arena - Toronto, ON

UB is looking to do something no MAC program has ever done before and thats win a third straight MAC Title. They have the ability and the talent, and must never be underestimated via a balanced group that has five different players averaging double figures in scoring through the first two games this season, led by Graves, who is averaging 16.0 points per game.UB features one of the more veteran teams with an average age of just under 21-years old and have an edge vs Harvard in this Tournament game here this afternoon.

CBB Neutral court teams (HARVARD) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 8-31 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The George Mason Patriots will be going for their fourth consecutive win when they take on the James Madison Dukes in a rivalry game  on Saturday night but Im betting that wont come easily vs a side that matches up well against them according to tiered powered rankings.

GEORGE MASON is 2-15 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons.

Play on James Madison to cover 

Im betting Tony Bennetts pack line D, is going to over power Columbia here this afternoon . Virginia has already held Syracuse and James Madison to 34 point outputs, and already this season ranks No.1 in the country in defence. Meanwhile, Columbia with a 0-2 record already this season on the road and  ranking 181st in the nation and offence, will find the sledding very tough here today, in what Im betting will be a vast DD margin of victory for the Cavaliers on their own home court for their 8th straight cover dating back to last season.

VIRGINIA is 15-4 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.VIRGINIA is 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +24.7. 

Play on Virginia to cover 

Hawaii squares off against Portland State in an early season matchup. Hawaii beat Pacific by five points at home on Monday, while Portland State came up short in an 85-74 game at Indiana on Saturday. Although it’s a small sample size with just three games played into the season, acting head coach Chris Gerlufsen believes the team has extreme potential. QUOTE:"I think we’re tough,' said Gerlufsen. “I was super proud of our group, we showed resolve and grit and really as a coach that’s all you can ask for, that a team is bought in and will play a full 40 minutes.” END QUOTE: I tend to agree with him. END QUOTE

PORTLAND ST is 0-8 ATS   when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons.

Ganot is 10-2 ATS  in home games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers as the coach of HAWAII.

Play on Hawaii to cover 

LSU after a monumental win vs Alabama last week, will now find themselves in an emotional letdown spot vs a Mississippi program, that needs two wins before the reg season ends to become Bowl eligible. After a week of celebrating the Tigers hangover is real, and mustering the energy to play at 100% will be nearly impossible if improbable which opens up the door for a motivated home dog that has cashed in  4 of their L/5 at home vs .850 or better opposition to get us the cover. Note: Underdogs who win matchups of 6-0 or better teams  are 0-6 ATS in the followup as favorites of 21 or less points since 1980. 

 LSU is 2-10 ATS L/12 off an upset win as a road underdog.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 92-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

The Gators smashed  visiting Vanderbilt 56-0 last weekend, and come in here with revenge on their minds for losses to Missouri in each of the past two seasons. The Tigers won 45-16 at home in 2017 before prevailing 38-17 in The Swamp last season. However, this Gators team is different from those groups, as this team can put points up in bunches averaging 33.3 ppg. Today I expect very little mercy from Florida as they pile up the points, and for Missouri to finally wake up from a recent ugly 3 game road trip where their usually efficient offence went to sleep. Here at home where the Tigers thrive ( 5-0) Missouri has averaged 40.4 ppg and a rebound is expected as QB Kelly Bryant returns to the lineup.  (The graduate transfer from Clemson missed last week's loss at Georgia after suffering a hamstring injury two weeks earlier at Kentucky.)Bryant has completed 140 of 225 passes (62.2 percent) for 1,845 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games this season. 

Note: My projections estimate that Florida will score 28+ points. FLORIDA is 7-0 OVER  in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.2 ppg going on the score board.

Offensively, Florida averages 419.5 yards (ranked 56th nationally), while Missouri is at 402.9 yards per game (72nd nationally).

FLORIDA is 6-0 OVER as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

HC Nick Rolovich,  of Hawaii is 1-12-1 ATS as a favourite in his tenure with the  Paradise Island football program and is once again laying points here on the road at UNLV.  I know the Rebels may not inspire bettors but they did upset SEC opponent Vanderbilt earlier this season, and on occasion have shown flashes of brilliance , so they truly are not as bad some think, just very inconsistent .  Meanwhile, HC Sanchez has seen his Sin City team cash at a 4-0-1 ATS rate in the last 5 meetings. I know the Warriors can really do some offensive damage , but as good as their attack is their defence is equally horrendous and have allowed an average  510 YPG over the last five tilts, and ripe to take on more punishment here against a team desperate for positive results. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Talk about being desperate for a win, and your talking about a South Carolina team that needs wins here against Texas A&M this week and Clemson after that, to be bowl eligible. First things first in what must be considered  a monumental task which will have the Gamecocks leaving everything on the field here vs the Aggies this Saturday.

Texas A&M has lost 10 of their L/14 SU and are  0-14 ATS off a bye during the regular season since 2008.

CFB road team  (S CAROLINA) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-7 SU L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on South Carolina to cover 

The under achieving Cardinals lost in Colorado in their last game 16-13. But its important to note Stanfords coach Shaw  in his career has been  a bounce back specialist to the extreme, as his team when coming off a SU favorite loss, are 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS , including 15-0 ATS the last fifteen tilts .  With Stanford  getting double digits on the road Saturday we have a value side to bet into vs a Washington State side, that despite of owning a top tier offence, also have a horrendous D and because of this , sit at the bottom of the PAC 12 North. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Im betting will get the cheese again.

STANFORD is 23-9 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game .

STANFORD is 7-3 straight up against WASHINGTON ST since 1992.

CFB team (WASHINGTON ST) - excellent offensive team (6.2  or more YPP) against a team with a struggling defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (WASHINGTON ST) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against an average offensive team (330-390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 13-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Stanford to cover 

Minnesota has surprised alot of pundits this season, and are now 9-0 on the season after beating a very good Penn State team last week. The Gophers were sky higher for that game, and left everything on the field and now a natural regression and emotional let down situation  is at hand here in Iowa this Saturday. Note: College Football 8-0 or better away teams off a double-digit ATS win as an underdog are 0-6 ATS dating back 37 seasons.

IOWA is 20-7 ATS L/27 vs. explosive offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game.

OWA is 11-1 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1992.

CFB team (MINNESOTA) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 17-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Auburn is  being under rated here vs what my projections are currently telling me is  a slightly over rated Georgia Buldogs team that had numerous injuries last week in their game against Missouri. The Tigers have been strong at home this season with a 4-0 record, and lost by just 3 points to new SEC power house LSU and deserve out respect here as home dogs. 

AUBURN is 11-1 ATS  in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game and is15-1 ATS in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 10-0 SU with rest in conference games in his career, as well as 8-0 SU off a bye versus unrested opponents.

Play on Auburn to cover 

Alabama is off a disheartening loss to LSU at home last week,  which will have the Crimson Tide in an emotional letdown situation, as DD road chalk, which has me backing the home dog in this spot.

ALABAMA is 1-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

Saban is 4-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of ALABAMA.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons

Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Bulldogs are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CFB home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - good rushing team (190-230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 80-38 ATS L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover