Alex Smart

My own projections make Ohio a 5 point fav here, and thus we are getting value with this line.  The last two meetings here between these two programs has seen Ohio win by DDs. Im betting on a Kent State team that loss by a 91-65 score toEastern Michigan on the road last time out to be on the wrong end of the score again. 

OHIO U is 62-39 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick with the average point diff of 5.6 ppg. 

CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (KENT ST) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games are 3-58 SU  L5 seasons with an average point differential of 19.9 ppg. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

 The Nuggets have been playing at a high level lately, especially at home, where they are 18-3 SU and have won their last 12, while the visiting defending champs Golden State have been playing very inconsistent  basketball despite of being healthy and from a betting perspective are just 4-11 ATS L/15 overall and not as ferocious as they once were. The last time these teams played here the Nuggets triumphed and Im betting they get the  cover here in this spot. 

 DENVER is 22-10 ATSwhen playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons

The Nuggets are 13-0 ATS/SU  at home with rest off a win in which there were eight-plus lead changes and it is before the All-Star break.DENVER is 12-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.DENVER is 17-5 ATS in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons

GOLDEN STATE is 2-14 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons . GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Denver to cover 

The Stars have scored just six goals in their last four games and have scored two or fewer goals in 10 of their last 13 games. Here against the leagues most explosive team  the Tampa Bay Bolts Im betting their in trouble. What gives even more credence to his selection is the fact that Tampa Bay (35-9-2, 72 points) is coming off a 5-1 loss to the New York Islanders on Sunday, which snapped a three-game winning streak and will be hell bent on bounce back after a rare embarrassing effort. Note: I know the Bolts have played alot lately with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this is the leagues best conditioned team, and after taking a night off vs the Isles will be fresher then some might think.Lightning are 20-7 in their last 27 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation

Lightning are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference

The Hawks are starting to play much better basketball of late winning 7 of their L/14 SU and have  covered 10 of their L/18 overall  and despite of losing by DDs, to a top tier  Milwaukee side  in their last home game were competitive in that tilt for 3 quarters. Note: 

Hawks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a double-digit loss at home.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.ATLANTA in their L/24 games  after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average point diff of 2.2 ppg.

In 18 home games this season this young Hawks side, has also not been an easy out with the average point differential clicking in at 6 ppg. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is only 12 -10 on the road this season, with the average point differential with coming by an average  roughy 3 ppg.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are just 10-32 SU L/5 seasons  for a go against 76 % with the average point diff clicking in at 7.9 ppg.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Chicago under their new interim head coach Jim Boylen originally wanted to implement a defence first system, but that plan looks like it has gone out the window as the Bulls are taking part in run and gun games on a consistent basis of late, with their L/5 going over the total, with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, LAL since James went down with an injury has consistently struggled to score, and are averaging 99.2 ppg in tier L/5 to the hardwood. With the Lakers desperately trying to get their offence untracked, Im betting they will be more aggressive tonight vs a side that has allowed more than 123 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood.The combination of the Bulls lack of D, and the Lakers need to up the ante on offence Im expecting a fairly high scoring affair that goes over the set total. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a below average defensive team (102  or PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 30-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

 No.3 Tennessee won the last meeting between the two programs (84-66 in last year’s SEC Tournament),  and now Arkansas will have some payback in mind. It must be noted that Arkansas has won six of the last seven overall meeting in this series, including each of the last two meetings in Thompson-Boling Arena. From a historical perspective this line is bloated , Note: In the 36 encounters since 1991-92, the average margin of victory in the series is 8.6 points. In 25 of those 36 games, the game was decided by single digits, including 13 games where the margin was five points or less. History does have a way of repeating itself even though these tow teams talent levels and performance are on currently divergent paths.  This season Arkansas is 10-5 with two of the losses coming in overtime and three times Arkansas had the ball with a chance to tie or wins. Arkansas’ five losses have been by 2, 1, 4, 6 and 6 points (3.8 average).Needless to say they are competitive and being slightly underrated here vs a public team. Im betting on them making a game of this , and more importantly getting us the cover a line that should be closer -11.5 according to my data. 

CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ARKANSAS) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 52-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas to cover 

Both these teams are methodical defence first teams, but according to my projections the number has been chiseled down by almost 5 points by the lines-makers in accordance with public perceptions . Im not betting that we wont see a physical grinding game, Im just estimating the combined score will eclipse this offer. Line value  resides with an OVER wager. 

St.Louis and their opponents in their 15 games this season have seen a combined average of 130.1 ppg scored. Fordham has seen a combined average of 131.6 ppg scored in their games this season. 

FORDHAM in their L/11 games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 127 ppg scored.

FORDHAM is 13-2 OVER  after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (SAINT LOUIS) - good defensive team (40-42.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 140.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Kermit Davis took over a  Ole Miss hoops program in transition, but has surprised with his ability to get the most out of this group especially with what looks to be the best backcourt in the nation, with. Devontae Shuler, Terence Davis and Breein Tyree.  Tonight however, despite of being  undefeated  in SEC play and at home this season, his Rebs will have his hands full, with a LSU Tigers side  that has gotten progressively better after  a  eight-man rotation has been put in place. I have projected one possession game so we have value taking points here with the underdog. 

CBB road team vs. the money line (LSU) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (73% or better ), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (14.5 TO or less ) after 15+ games have won 18 of the L/29 such matchups SU, for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 3 points per game which gives us value on this line.

Play on LSU to cover