Alex Smart

The Senators are struggling and have lost two of their last three and four of their last six overall including all three of their away tilts  during this sub standard run!  The Sens have struggled on the road all season long ranking 28th , in the league away from Canadas capital.On the flipside  the  Maple Leafs have recorded the  NHL’s second-best home record (19-3-4) and Im betting they dominate here on home ice vs a side they matchup well against.Five of Ottawa’s last six away defeats   have been by two or more  goals .TORONTO is 17-3 ATS in home games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Toronto Maple Leafs to win -1.5 

Bucks will be playing with Portis tonight and Im betting their offensive flow will be interrupted which will see the Bucks play a more defensive brand of slow down hoops that will turn this game into a grinding affair . That Im betting results in a closer margin than the lines-makers are estimating. I know the Bucks plowed down a 132-116 offensive beatdown of the Pacers back on Jan 15th but now I expect the Pacers to be in big time revenge mode and very ready to compete on. a physical  more conservative level . INDIANA is 11-3 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.

MILWAUKEE is 1-8 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

INDIANA is 11-3 ATS  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 50-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The Bucks rank 18th in offense in the NBA and 6th in ppg allowed and 4th in defensive rating behind a 15th ranked pace. The Bucks Bobby Portis is expected to be out tonight and their offensive flow could easily be off here without his chemistry in the lineup, thus limiting the Bucks explosiveness .After  a successful defensive display by the Bucks  against Denver in a  107-99 win last time out, a similar defensive  formula Im betting will used to slow down the run and gun Pacers who despite of decent offensive output rank just 24th in offensive efficiency. Advantage under.

Under is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games following a straight up win. Under is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 22-8 in Bucks last 30 road games.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 111-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 31-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.

Play UNDER

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Niagara was upset by Manhattan as road favs back on Jan 8th and will now be in revenge and redemption mode and ready for payback on their own home floor tonight. 

NIAGARA is 6-0 ATS  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.3 ppg. 

Niagara has momentum after a win last time out, - beating St.Peters by a 59-57 count - NIAGARA is 6-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff clicking in at +13 ppg. 

Play on Niagara to cover 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Both these teams have eclipsed the offered total in their L/4 games and Im betting on another higher scoring affair than the Totals number being offered. North Dakota State has allowed just under 77 points on the road this season while N.Dakota has averaged 77 points on offense in their home games, and Im betting that this aggregate average continues with the visitors doing more than enough damage offensively to get us over this number. 

Sather is 12-4 OVER  in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 as the coach of N DAKOTA with a combined average of 149.6 ppg scored.

Sather is 6-0 OVER  in road games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more as the coach of N DAKOTA with a combined average of 151.3 ppg scored.

N DAKOTA ST in their L/7 home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 149.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (N DAKOTA) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival are 32-10 OVER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

  My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

This will be just the seventh all time  meeting between the two schools as the Titans are 6-0 all-time, 5-0 since the Colonials joined the Horizon League including a 87-75 win at home this season .  Im now betting behind the nations top scorer at 26.4 points per game, graduate senior (Antoine Davis) will be the difference maker for the road side.The Titans have shot over 50.0% as a team in each of the last five meetings against Robert Morris posting 50.8%, 50.9% and 55.6% in 2021, 50.9% last year and 52.7% in the match-up two weeks ago. Rinse and repeat on the agenda. 

ROBERT MORRIS is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Detroit Mercy to cover