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Handicappers
- Alex Smart
Alex Smart
Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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No. 2 seed in the NIT Texas goes head to head with No. 7 seed South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
South Dakota State won the Summit League regular season championship with a 14-2 record and are strong and under rated mid-major program coming off of three NCAA Tournament appearances, behind 6"9 " senior forward Nick Daum, the three-time reigning Summit League Player of the Year. The versatile all around hoops player is averaging 25.3 points and 11.7 rebounds this season and could easily end up being a huge headache for HC Smart and company.
Overall this is not a good matchup for Texas as they have had problems playing fast paced offences like this season like TCU where they recently struggled in transition . Thats not a good omen against a high octane run and gun hoops group like South Dakota State that ranks No. 36 nationally in adjusted tempo. Meanwhile, Texas will also have to deal with a tenacious and disciplined group ranking (No. 7 nationally) in offensive rebounds and in allowing charity stripe chances ranking (No. 3 nationally).
With that said, Im betting the Jackrabbits force the Longhorns out of their comfort zone and will make sure that their moving consistently and attacking immediately out of transition. Texas is a public team , and the line is bloated thanks to their popularity and we now have an opportunity to fade them on what is an advantage line.
Take the points
675 South Dakota State to cover
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas-Arlington vs Georgia State | UNDER 137½ -110 | Premium | 64-73 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Hornets vs Heat | UNDER 213 -110 | Premium | 75-93 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Bulls vs Kings | UNDER 232 -115 | Premium | 102-129 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Raptors vs Pistons | UNDER 216 -110 | Premium | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Nets vs Clippers | OVER 232 -109 | Premium | 116-119 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Auburn vs Tennessee | Auburn +5½ -110 | Premium | 84-64 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Islanders vs Wild | UNDER 5½ -125 | Premium | 3-2 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Cincinnati vs Houston | Houston -4½ -110 | Premium | 69-57 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Auburn vs Tennessee | UNDER 147 -110 | Premium | 84-64 | Loss | -110 | Show |
| Lakers vs Knicks | Knicks +5 -115 | Premium | 123-124 | Win | 100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Im betting on a big time back and forth offensive battle here tonight with the total being eclipsed. Both these teams have played decent defence of late, but this will will morph out of control just because of the kind of energy that will be exerted here and the fact that after getting clobbered by Golden State 141-102 in an earlier meeting the Spurs will come out here with all guns blazing in ok coral revenge style hoops . GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 OVER after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less over the last 3 seasons which happened last time out vs Oklahoma City l, with the combined average score of those follow up games Clicking in at 236.7 ppg. The Warriors are also 9-0 L/9 OVER as a road favorite off a road win in which Stephen Curry attempted more three pointers than two pointers with a combined average of 244.8 ppg scored.
Over is 9-3 in Spurs last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Play OVER
Cleveland Cavaliers know they have to do a much better job containing the Detroit Pistons' front court duo of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond as they try to avoid being swept in the season series, and will be out looking to play a much better brand of defense, something they know Detroit is very capable of doing. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect. Note:DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season with a combined average of 201.6 ppg. Casey is 10-0 UNDER when playing 8 or more games in 14 days as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 204 ppg.
The Cavaliers are 1-12 L/13 as a home dog with rest when they are off two games in which their opponent scored 10+ more points than their respective averages with a combined average of 189 ppg.
DETROIT is 25-10 UNDER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.5 ppg. The Pistons are 2-20 on the UNDER L/22 as a road favorite with no rest off a win in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average 176.1 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 80-43 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play UNDER
Miami beat Charlotte at home Sunday, holding the Hornets to a season-low 75 points. Tonight however, on tired legs that kind of effort Im betting wont come close to happening, as the Thunder will bring out the big guns behind the 3rd ranked pace in an effort not to play to the Heats preferred method of hoops which right now seems methodical ranking 25th in pace behind an offence that ranks 25th in offensive output.Note: Oklahoma City won the first meeting between the teams, 118-102, on Feb. 1 in Miami, and Im betting on a similar output here tonight.
The Thunder are 12-1 OVER as a favorite off a loss as a favorite in which they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.
Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. Western Conference.Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. NBA Southeast.
Play on the OVER
The Spurs have won 10 straight at home and are a season-best 12 games over .500 and are viable bets here as hosts in their current form, yes even against the defending Golden State Warriors.The Spurs and Warriors have split their two meetings this season, with both winning at home and Im betting the host side will hold serve again. SAN ANTONIO is 25-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and s 21-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 21-3 revenging a road loss overall and also 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. (GS beat SA at home on Jan 6 141-102 in merciless fashion and now pay back is at hand)
GOLDEN STATE is 9-25 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game with the lone win coming by 1 point.The Warriors are 1-17-1 ATS /2-17 SU on the road with rest off a game as a dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.
Play on the San Antonio spurs to cover
The Portland Trail Blazers' starting lineup will be missing a key cog Monday night when the Indiana Pacers come into Oregon.The Blazers will be without starting shooting guard CJ McCollum( knee injury) which will effect the flow of this game for the Blazers offensively. The guard averages 21.3 ppg . This will in turn directly effect the total offensive output of this tilt vs a defensive minded eastern conference team in the Pacers. Note: INDIANA is 22-6 UNDER ( versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.4 ppg scored.INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 197.7 ppg scored.
Under is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 overall.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 road games.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-6-1 in Pacers last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 23-8 in Pacers last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 22-8 in Pacers last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 37-17 in Pacers last 54 games following a ATS win.Under is 64-30-1 in Pacers last 95 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 47-23 in Pacers last 70 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Trailblazers are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home off a loss in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent with a combined average of 190.3 ppg scored
The Trailblazers are 4-21 UNDER L/25 as a home favorite off a loss in a road game in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 189 ppg scored.
Play UNDER
These are two of the top teams in the NBA , and at this time of the season, play off bound sides like this like to play a top tier brand of defence, knowing that that will be key to any successes or failures they have in a quest for a championship ring. With that said, Im recommending a under wager in this spot.
Under is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games.Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 7-0 in Nuggets last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 12-1 in Nuggets last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 overall.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Nuggets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
The Nuggets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 after they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.
DENVER is 21-10 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with the combined average score clicking in at 219 ppg.
The Celtics are 3-21 UNDER L/24 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board with only 1 of the 24 games eclipsing this total.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 62-25 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play UNDER
As the post season gets closer Utah a team that ranks 20th in ppg on offence bases its successes and failures on their ability to play top tier defence which is what they currently doing as they enter this tilt ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Jazz have been particularly stingy of late as they have not allowed any of their L/4 opponents to breach the 100 point plateau with all 4 games remaining on the low side of the total. Meanwhile, Washington loves to run and gun, but if anyone can stall the Wizards it will be the Jazz, and thats what Im betting on here tonight in a tilt I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-2 in Jazz last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 12-4 in Jazz last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 6-2 in Jazz last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 13-3 in Wizards last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
The Wizards are 2-16 UNDER L/18 as a dog off a win in which their points increased by at least 25 from the game before with a .combined average score of 188.8 ppg scored.
The Jazz are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a favorite with rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 209.9 ppg scored.
Play UNDER
The Bulls defeated Phoenix 124-116 on Nov. 21 as hosts. LaVine scored 29 points for Chicago and according to my power rankings matches up very well vs the Suns. The Suns are 0-12-1 ATS (/0-13 SU off a win as a road dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. NBA favorites (PHOENIX) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 73-121 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. ( Suns beat Pelicans in OT last time out on the road)
PHOENIX is 1-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.
CHICAGO is 21-8 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.
Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover
This is Chicagos fourth game in week and their on tired legs , while, this is the Suns 3rd game in 4 nights, with their last game going into OT on the road. Fatigue here at this juncture of the season, as well as past trends in matchups like this give us value with a under wager.
The Suns are 0-8 OU L/9 at home off a game as a dog in which they had overtime with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored and is 8-0 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.
CHICAGO is 23-12 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 211 ppg going on the board.The Bulls are 6-26 UNDER L/32 when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored.
NBA team (PHOENIX) - off a road win by 3 points or less, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 94-53 UNDER L/64% L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.
NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March games and are 105-52 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER
SERVICE BIO
Experience & Awards
I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years.
My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.
My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.
I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!
I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.
I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis.
Handicapping Approach
I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.
My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.
Sports Betting Is An Investment
Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures.
Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.
I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.
In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.
I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!
This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!
Money Management
To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.
If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets.
This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.
Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.
1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.
2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.
3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.
4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.
5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.
6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.
These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.
I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.
*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.